RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:NG is up NVA is downthanks for the reply Momo.
Can you share what your assumptions are for commodity pricing and what your calculations show for cashflow in 2020? I'd be very interested to compare notes and adjust my model if there are errors.
you're 100% correct in their LOC increase of $90MM from March 31 2019 to 2020; which if you follow not just condensate and wti pricing but component pricing, you'll understand that the bulk of that was due to excess C2 and C4 that were worked off at the end of 2019. 2020 pricing looks soft for C4 with 2020 appreciating signficantly. 2019 Cash flow was materially lower than 2018, liquids pricing alone was 56% lower. 2019 revisions to TC storage was also only put into effect in Oct '19 and looking at todays pricing vs last year.. the net effect is hardly a miss. We're selling spot gas today higher than we did on many winter days of 2019 and early 2020 with Aeco today spot @ $2.04/GJ.
I guess what you need to remember is NVA spent almost 74-78% of it's 2020 budget in Q1 which accounts heavily for why the debt has increased this year. Using round figures from 2019, they cashflowed ~$66MM/quarter.. if they spent $135MM in Q1, there's a deficit of $70MM that they borrowed against the line to build infrastructure + D&C wells. they should be balanced with Q1/Q2 spending at the end of this quarter if not then very close by mid Q3. Moderate spending in Q3+Q4 of $35-45MM should be do-able given current commodity netbacks; which leaves the excess towards debt.
Table's all yours Momo.. again, numbers speak much larger then words so please show us what we're missing and the numbers that support.
Thanks for the support on the analysis Jose.