RE:The TC standoffFirecracker - great analysis and rationale / discussion. I am of the belief that it is Glencore who is in a bind with TV given the apparent conflict of interest that the TV board members may be in given the Glencore ownership.
TV can keep going along and deferring payment until the point that they declare bankruptcy and leave Glencore high and dry on two fronts- they will still owe the process charges and Glencore will have to write off its 26 % investment.
The logical solution would be for Glencore to charge TV a more reasonable treatment charge and continue to feed their zinc refineries or else risk everything, be stubborn and force TV into bankruptcy.
No one will, or should, lend TV any more money if they are not breaking even. There is also a huge risk at the next financial statement that their auditors could, righfully, put a kiss of death to this by placing a "going concern" caveat in the financial statements. To me that is the real risk.
Sadly Glencore put TV into this situation and management allowed them to move into that direction and they sucked all the money out of TV by selling them the various mines. Along the way management made a bunch of mistakes and many of them are no longer with the company but the damage is done...perhaps too much damage to recover from. Only time will tell.
I am very long in this and have recognized from the beginning that it was a dividend paying stock that, through bad decision and market timing, has fallen very far. Can it survive ==> yes. Will it survice- that is the $40 million dollar question. If the board takes control perhaps. If Glencore plays nice, perhaps. If zinc bounces by 10% perhaps.
Lots of perhaps and that is reflected in the share price.