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Conifex Timber Inc T.CFF

Alternate Symbol(s):  CFXTF

Conifex Timber Inc. is a Canada-based forest products company, which operates fiber baskets in North America, northern British Columbia. The Company produces lumber products and renewable energy from its sawmill and bioenergy plant in Mackenzie, British Columbia. Its lumber products are sold in the United States, Canadian and Japanese markets. It also produces bioenergy at its power generation facility at Mackenzie, British Columbia. Its lumber products include J-GRADE, 2 AND BETTER, SELECT, STUDS, ECONOMY and 3. The Company operates a two-line sawmill in Mackenzie, British Columbia (the Mackenzie Mill). Its Mackenzie Mill has approximately 240 million board feet of annual lumber capacity on a two-shift basis. It operates a 36-megawatt biomass power generation plant in Mackenzie, British Columbia (the Power Plant), located at the site of its Mackenzie Mill. Its Power Plant's output capacity is in excess of 230 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity per year.


TSX:CFF - Post by User

Bullboard Posts
Post by dosperroson Jul 24, 2020 2:15pm
152 Views
Post# 31315678

Aspirational traders - this is the big leagues

Aspirational traders - this is the big leagues

It'll build character so hang in there.  Historically high risk high reward with the drops being attributable to debt, covid, and strategy.  But the debt was the big one.  It's solved now thankfully.  The strategy is frustrating as there are ways of putting a floor under the price which are not being used, but that's life.  


Can it drop near term?   Sure.  Long term risk of being penny-bound?  I'd be highly skeptical.  Reason is at 40 cents or $16 million market cap, your debt free (1.5 years of current lumber prices pay back the $60m outstanding).  Why would the market cap = ebitda from the power alone??

Or, pay out half of power cash flow as a
div.  That's maybe 15 cents a share and sustainable.   Can you buy a 37% sustainable yield?  Nope.  My take is the div can and should be a lot higher, but this is a basic example.  And e 15 cents a share would put a floor of $1.50 or better under this (10% yields are pretty darn compelling in this low interest environment). 


The good news is I have faith in the leadership.  These handsome devils will see us to the promised land. That's why I'm dismayed in the Yahoo Finances platform which allows unflattering GIFs to be posted.  Truly appalling.  Don't look there whatever you do. Our poor beloved leadership team is getting unfairly attacked.  Remember, they know best, not us ragtag collection of louts like black4444 and all his fancy-talkin' hedgefundin' clarity.   


 

Bullboard Posts