RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:What's working All three companies are solid. CFP and WFT are traditionally vertically integrated with pulp assets (and panelboard WFT's case) whereas IFP is the only noticeable pureplay lumber shop out there. So it depends on what you're betting on happening. I see this being an emergent lumber and panel supercycle, so things like CFX have floundered. Canfor has only 55% of CFX’s pulp, so that’s actually a good thing.
I've seen CFP's capital allocation in action first hand and it's very good and finding quality assets (Europe and US South) but it's incredibly one-dimensional and occurs are the expense of other important functions. They are out to buy. That can be good or bad depending on your perspective.
My take is the absolute gold standard in the industry for capital allocation is Norbord. Interfor has grown from a modest outfit to a major so they went all in on growth too, but I wonder if they'll take a more balanced approach like OSB or WFT in the future. Nobody as ever accused Canfor of taking a balanced approach lol, but that is Jimmy's influence. I saw them blow through their monster softwood duty refund 15 years ago and manage to not give shareholders a dime which is either playing 4D chess or brutally short-sighted. That was summer '06 when they got that $800 million back... share price was $13 then. That's maybe a compound annual rate of return of 1.5% over the 14 years. Yikes. This is why firms pay divs, after all – it’s not their money but sharehodlers. That’s lost in the shuffle somewhat at Canfor. You wouldn't see that behaviour at WFT or OSB. However, the opportunity is that it means CFP trades at a major discount to WFT so it has greater upside if/when they manage things a bit better.
Oh well. I have a few CFP shares but I'm mostly hoping they cash my out with a monster return on my cheap and absurdly undervalued Conifex shares. The CFF powerplant would be a great annuity cashflow for CFP and would give you an absurd amount of quality forest tenure to either keep PG Saw and Polar and Chetwynd and FSJ topped up,or build a Cadillac supermill that's properly engineered unlike the incumbent assets in Mackenzie. Good win either way, and Canfor under heir apparent Mackie will be a much better company than under Kayne IMO. So upside all around for everyone (esp. me -- I can't wait to be less exposed to the bozos clown car than is Conifex leadership (well the CEO at least, most of the others are gone and the new CFO is highly skilled).
GLTA.