GREY:VGFCQ - Post by User
Post by
EdgeInvestmentson Sep 03, 2020 1:35pm
367 Views
Post# 31504752
Revenue projection deep(ish) dive
Revenue projection deep(ish) diveVERY reported approx. gross production for 2019 along with revenue, so if you reverse engineer the math you get an estimated sales price of ~$16/lb.
Let's be super conservative and ONLY look at Victoria. Management provided guidance of 19,000 lbs/wk out of that facility in the near term, so using the same $16/lb that's $1.2m a month or $15.8m annually.
BYND currently trades at ~18x revenues, so using that same multiple would give VERY an implied market cap of $284m (>$3 share).
However, we shouldn't exactly ignore the newly announced Vancouver/California facilities:
California capacity: 550k lbs/wk
Vancouver capacity: 100k lbs/wk
Victoria capacity: 25k lbs/wk
Total: 675k lbs/wk
This is very loose math, but using the figures above then you can get a rough revenue projection (at full capacity) of $10.8m... a week! Multiplied by 52 and that's over $500m a year top line.
Of course production capacity doesn't necesserily mean they can sell that much, so that remains to be seen.
But with a current market cap of ~$120-$130m...
Am I missing something?