N00b Chart analysis Hope everyone is doing well,
I will be talking about Aphria chart that is on the NASDAQ because volume is higher which means price action is more representative so it will be USD $
Like I promised at my last post, if we break a key resistance or key support I will make a new post. Unfortunately we broke the 4.51$ support to get a Daily Trend Change going :
- 4.51$ which is where I felt like the bulls finally decided to show up and get a bounce going after all that negative reaction to earnings trading
- We touched 4.38$ which was the very low of the bad reaction to earnings
We can almost say it's a quintuple(5) bottom (call it like that even if the 5 times it didn't exactly hit 4.38$) now and a really good base of support like I said in my previous posts.
If you don't remember, when you look at the candles that represent 1 day (daily timeframe)
- July 13th 2020 Low of the day 4.40$
- August 7th 2020 Low of the day 4.38$
- August 12th 2020 Low of the day 4.40$
- August 24th 2020 Low of the day 4.39$
- September 4th 2020 Low of the day 4.38$
It seems like we recovered like the markets did at the end of the day so for the moment there's no bear follow up , no increase in bear volume on that red day (Friday September 4th 2020) and we're still holding that key support 4.38$.
With that being said, you will not be surprised if I tell you that
Key Support - 4.38$ (Breaking it with bear follow up would mean more pain Ahead)
- 4.36$ (July 9th High of the day)
- 4.31$ (July 10th High of the day)
- 4.13$ (July 10th Low of the day)
Key Resistance
The ideal scenario would be that Aphria only tanked because the overall market had a rough Thursday September 3rd 2020 and rough Friday September 4th 2020. Yes Aphria is not immune to market being shaked up and yes unfortunately it follows the market on the downside but not on the upside or else we would of been sitting at all time highs. We're not even back to the level we were at in January 2020 before the virus.
With that being said, next earnings can change the momentum since we won't have inventory writedown and assets writedown that combined impaired us by 90M+ CAD$. We will have the Emblem Settlement that will affect us 15.5M$ Canadian Cash and 10M$ CAD, I'm not a CPA so not sure how this will be counted but all I know is that after Q1 2021 which is the upcoming earnings , Q2 2021 will be a quarter witth no surprise fees or impairment (I hope). Link below for the Emblem story for those who weren't aware :
https://aphriainc.com/settlement-of-claim-with-emblem-and-aleafia-health/
Allright so back to charts, if bulls want to prove that this quick shift in momentum was only due to market correction, the key resistances would be
- 4.71$ (September 4th 2020 high of the day)
- 4.79$ (September 2th 2020 high of the day)
- 4.83$ (September 3rd 2020 high of the day)
- 4.87$ (September 1st 2020 high of the day)
- 4.90$ (August 31th 2020 high of the day)
We were on the good track before overall markets consolidate. If bulls want to impress me I want to see all those resistances break so a 7% run without breaking the key support of 4.38$. If that were to happen, you would have all the reasons to smile.
Next Post will be if we break :
- Key Support 4.38$ OR
- Key Resistance 4.90$
I'm not a financial advisor, I don't have a crystal ball, never trust some random person on a forum. This is just for educational purposes.
Thank you for reading and good luck