Reverse Bank-RunsWe are all familiar with a bank-run, when depositers are worried about a bank closing, so they withdraw all their money. Governments normally step in within hours and pump trillions into the banking system. In 2008, during the financial crisis, the US government guaranteed ALL bank deposits with no upper limit. Confidence returned immediately.
Bank runs can happen because the banks borrow at short-term maturities and loan this money out at long-term maturities. The bank takes the risk not everyone will ask for their money back at the same time.
So SGY has a $167.5m term loan, repayable March 31, 2021. And they can't pay it back. Why would they do this? Because they never expected to pay it back. SGY undoubtedly expected to refinance some or all of it when it came due.
My observation is the Canadian Banks (the loan is from a consortium which seems to include most banks) have decided they don't want to lend money to the energy industry anymore. They want all their money back as fast as possible. They have probably concluded that climate change issues are real and the oil industry is now in decline. The alternative explanation is the banks don't know how long the COVID problem will last, with its low oil prices, so they are retreating to the sidelines until the future becomes clearer.
My point here is the Canadian Banks have decided to do a Reverse Bank Run, where the Banks withdraw all their money suddenly, causing an entire industry to collapse. And what annoys me is the Governments (Federal and Alberta) have not come up with trillions within hours. The $100m loan guarantees are still grinding their way through the approval process after 6 months of COVID. And SGY still has to pay royalties to Alberta. If SGY goes bankrupt, there won't be any more royalties.
What is cool to consider is the next shoe to drop is bank mortgages held by Albertans. It is only a matter of time before banks refuse to renew mortgages when they come due after 1-5 years ... if your job is in the energy industry. That will force these people to sell their houses to repay the mortgage (like SGY, they never intended to repay on the due date). That will cause Calgary house prices to decline. That will cause Albertans who do not work in the energy industry to have negative equity in their house. That will force them to stump up more collateral when they go to renew their own mortgage. If they can't then they too will sell. Driving Calgary house prices even lower.
Bank Runs and Reverse-Bank-Runs are both nasty. Ottawa needs to come up with something better on Sept 23 than we have so far. Managed decline of an industry is far better than a panic collapse.