Anticipation...much ado about nothingHi all,
Here we are again. My obsession with analysis of III. A company that owns 30% of a golden goose, and two ugly ducklings.
The company is burning money - got around 60 mil left after its magnificant deal with NC - which got listed on TSX this week! GO NC! Suck it III! Suck it long and Suck it hard!
III continues to be stuck in between 2.90 and 3.10 - like a yoyo. Everyone is waiting for the end month report. By all calculations III will walk away with 8 mil$ (US) for its operating income. An increase of about 30% from June reporting period. We are looking at 0.03 per share diluted income.
Go III! Additionally the company is highly unlikely to open up any of its other operations as Mount Polley is close to end of life. They might open it up at 3.50 but unfortunetly without a stimulus that will not happen - no stimulus until Trump is moved out of the white house :)
As for NC - here is the latest from a presentation given two weeks ago. RC will undergo expension within the next 6-8 months. Q1 2021 is a write off for RC as the company forsees return to profitability in Q2/3 2021 at RC. The expension and additional resources will be EXPENSIVE....didnt see the figure but if what they are proposing is true - III will run out of money in Feburary :) They will barrow of course heaviliy as these yoyos (Koch) dont know any other way of making cash with the expension of daddy warbucks and his magical Fairholme Fund provisions. (BTW who is driving the price down at III ; ) - the answer if Fairholme.
So III will not give a dividend - they will take the 8 mil from this quarter and spend it on internal "operations" ...(I think its coke and blow) - I mention this as a dividend would be the only way this company goes above the price hole its in. As they run out of the money they will structure and borrow - which will devalue them - however asset re assesment will improve significantly. The 30% will be worth more...thats true...but for a shareholder with no dividend the risk means nothing as we make no money ....
I need a drink. Unless there is a big surprise in the works for the end of october this stock is going down.... (alhtough I will be happy to be wrong - as I still owe 20k shares :/ )
with regards,
BH