SPCEO1 wrote: I believe there is a very good chance you will be facing that tough decision of how to be a wise donor with the excess capital you will be priviliged to control and you will likely have to contend with those "problems" in the next 12-24 months.
Basically, the stock is currently trading horribly as investors who had high hopes for Trogarzo are still exiting the shares. While their sentiments are understandable and no one hear has not feelt them from time to time, I feel bad for them since they are likely making a tragic error. These investors are struggling with the common human emotion of regret and are having a hard time not looking into the rearview mirror of their investment portfolio. If they could peel their eyes off the past and look out the front windshield, they would see an entirely different and much more optimistic road ahead. The past is done, it was bad and the stock more than fully reflects that already. Even so, no reasonable observer can deny that TH is set up for what has a decent chance of being an epic run higher.
We have been batting around the NASH situation for just about two years now. But we are now on the verge of it becoming a reality and we all know how there is nothing at all in TH's current shre price for what could be a huge opportunity for the company, much larger than Trogarzo ever was going to be. While we cannot say with 100% certainty the NASH opportuntunity will turn into a NASH reality, investors have good reason to believe the chance of success in NASH is signficantly greater than zero. And we are only months away from that potential reality being validated as actual reality by the FDA and EMA. Moreover, we can estimate the TH stock price upside from a positive outcome that falls in the 200% to 300% range just based on a conservative look at how other such companies are valued right now.
Then, we have the cancer situation. Clearly, one shuold be cautious about getting too hyped up about any preclinical drug asset. Still, we know fromm what the chairwoman said at the annual meeting that people outside the company are very interested in it. I think we can rightfully infer she was talking about large pharma companies wanting to get a piece of what TH has going on in cancer in case it works out. So, on that basis, if not just on a careful reading of the preclinical evidence we have seen so far, there is some reason to be optimistic about TH's cancer opportunity. But again, there is currently no value in TH's stock price for it at this time. We could get validation of this opportunity at any time since if big pharma made TH an offer it could not refuse, we may see a partnership announced. While I would love to see some sort of validation like that, it would likely also come at a big price as the competition over TH's cancer program from big pharma would likely explode if they have positive phase I results and it would likely be worth waiting for that. We are only talking about another year of there are not too many delays in the testing process.
About a year ago I said we really needed to forget Trogarzo and lipo and view TH as a R&D company. Nobody apparently listened much to that as the stock is still being valued based off its legacy business and is undervalued on that too now. While the market often gets things wrong for a time, it does not normally get things wrong permanently. Right now, you can buy TH at a decent discount to what its two commercial products are worth and get two free enormous options (NASH and cancer) thrown in with the deal. The chance that those options, either one or both, ultimately have considerably more value than the current share price is pretty good. Obviously, there is a chance TH bombs out on both but there is a better chance that one or both will turn into something much more impressive than Trogarzo was ever going to be.
So, let me make a prediction. TH could very well be by far the biggest winner in your portfolio over the next twelve months or so. If they hit on both NASH and cancer, it will likely rise by 1,000%, maybe more. And if you are willing to peel your eyes away from the rear view mirror and look to the wide open road ahead, it is not too hard to see that potential as well. Best of all, you are not paying a dime for it right now. Its completely free because too many investors are not able to stop looking at their rearview mirror.
So get ready to make some tough decisions. If I turn out to be right and you are interested in giving to one of many wonderful Christian ministries doing great work, please check out MinistryWatch.com. You can find Morningstar style reports on hundreds of Christian ministries there - the goal of the site is to help you become a wiser and more effective donor. I am pretty sure things are going to work out where you will benefit from the help that website can give you.
Lee430 wrote: I hope one day my toughest decision is how to do the greatest good with my wealth..."Ain't no armoured cars in the funeral procession"
scarlet1967 wrote: They say charity begins at home but there are many parts in the world a little monthly contribution goes quite far.
https://ethiopiahealthaid.org/ scarlet1967 wrote: Like other long to medium term investors on this board I share your frustration.
I believe the delay is due to "additional insights " what they are we don't know but I guess we find out soon.
The fact that the company is participating in various conferences is a good sign so hopefully they manage to convince the market and get the recognition they deserve. I applaud the noble cause of your investment...
Lee430 wrote: For years I have looked forward to reading all of the enlightening post on this board, now I am simply so Thera fatigued that reading this board and watching the SP slide despite Thera hitting milestone after milestone has worn me down….. What happened to “A FEW WEEKS TO FILE” and no update to explain this delay?.......so much for my plan of taking profits to help when so many families now are in desperate need ;-<
SPCEO1 wrote: That certainly seems like a reasonable expectation of how things could work out.
palinc2000 wrote: I am 100% certain that they will issue a PR upon or soon after submission..My point is that by Nov 10 submission will have occurred and Paul will initiate the sales pitch to the investment communitiny ..
scarlet1967 wrote: I hope you are correct but the submission should be followed by a PR...
palinc2000 wrote: The Ceo will be making the Presentation at the Credit Suisse Health Conference
i believe this will be the first time that the Ceo makes a Presentation rather than the CFO .
This indicates to me that they will have filed with Fda for a Phase 3 in Nash
This might be a turning point from which they will promote the Company with tangible news