RE:RE:Just from BNN. WCS is at .26 and Suncor's BREAK EVEN is $41MMLilo wrote: The break eaven is based on WTI USD/bbl
WTI -WCS = Diffs
WTI spot Price: 36ish USD The Diffs is ~10 USD so WCS is at 26 USD
Divided by average FX of 0.75 = ~35 CAD/bbl
in last couple of years WTI-WCS Diffs were trading on average of 18 USD (15-20 USD)
Currently is sitting at 10 USD/bbl tighter Diff so WCS realized prices at WTI of 40 is similar to WTI of 45 on average compared to last couple of years historical average.
As PEMEX anounces that will cut heavy supply to GOM refinaries market expect the Diffs improve further in near future so better realized prices.
Soon the 150 mbbl/day (Shut-in Due to turn around) comes back online the opex will get back to normal levels and net backs improves further (The fixed componenet of the opex for 600 mbb/day and 750 mbbl/day is pretty the same, so 150 mbblish per day comes back mostly at incremental varibale cost)
Ya topadvise NOTHING. Take that!