N00bInvesTOR Charts Ticker APHA on the Nasdaq because Volume is higher than TSX.
Therefore, the share price is in $ USD.
Overall Picture
APHA performance for the Week compared to the broader market is impressive.
APHA recovery during the last 3 hours of trading is making bulls smile.
One can argue that after a negative reaction to earnings, the stock tanked enough or
Biden Lead in the polls is affecting positively the US and Canadian MJ Sector.
It can also be due to both reasons above, who knows.
APHA is still trying to find a bottom after it's negative reaction to earnings.
Until we get a significant bounce going on before consolidation, the Daily Bear Flag scenario
remains possible.
What is a Daily Bear Flag?
First of all, you have to go on the Time Frame where 1 Candle = Price Action of 1 Day.
Basically, if you don't recuperate/retrace 38,2% of a big move to the downside and
Trade Sideways without bouncing significantly (38,2%) it favors the bears.
To be able to visualize it, you need to draw it.
The intial big move down = pole
The sideways trading = The Flag
If Daily Bear Flag scenario happens, you get another pole to the down side
Use the Fibonaci Retracement tool and pull it from where a move topped out and
extend it to where you think the move bottomed. So in this example, we willl use
Today Low of The Day 4.31.
Here is the link of how I drawed my Fibonnaci :
https://www.tradingview.com/x/POXGwr0N/
As you can see, the stock topped out at 6.44 before earnings and then moved quickly down to 4.31. A healthy bounce from the bulls would take the price as high as 5.12 minimum to reach the 38,2% retracement fib.
So this is how the Daily would look like if the Daily Bear Flag Scenario materialize :
https://www.tradingview.com/x/HpSlHjOX/
That's why you want a significant bounce to negate the flag. Once you get that bounce going,
If the bounce is big enough (5.12 minimum), bulls will feel more confident that a
Daily Higher Low compared to 4.31 is possible and that a Daily Trend Change is under way.
Bullish Scenario
This is what bulls want to see next week
Bulls want to see an Hourly Trend Change to feel confident that a Daily Bounce is going on
See this chart below where 1 candle = 1 hour
https://www.tradingview.com/x/t2ymSD62/
Then bulls have to continue working to keep the bounce going to work the price high enough
to negate the Daily Bear Flag Scenario (5.12 minimum). Increasing Bull Volume also.
To break that 5.12 resistance, you have to break these resistances first :
Bearish Scenario
This what bears want to see next week :
Fail the Hourly Trend change which means not holding 4.32 support once the hourly bounce starts to consolidate.
Confirm the Daily Bear Flag with good follow up on increasing bear volume.
Good Bear Follow up would mean testing 3.96 support. Before that support you have
to break the following supports :
- 4.31
- 4.28
- 4.17
- 4.12
- 4.00 Psychological
Disclaimer
I'm not an Aphria Shareholder, this post is for educational purposes.
Please take the decision to sell or buy APHA because you did a thorough due diligence.
I'm not a financial advisor or chart fortune teller, I'm just analysing and calling things according
to my OPINION and technical analysis skills.
Thank you and enjoy