BCdude wrote: Hey Sandysouci, Thanks for taking the time to reply.
I think you make some good points about different ways to value a stock, and I would agree to some extent that times have changed. One of the biggest reasons Buffett has underperformed in recent years is that Berkshire Hathaway has become SO BIG that it's become more and more difficult to find those large value deals that move the needle.
Nevertheless, I'm a value investor because it's served me well and I expect it will continue to serve me well into the future. My top five smallcap picks this year are up 695% (UGE), 455% (KNR), 265% (MTRX), 188% (GRN), and 164% (SPOT), so although I will likely miss the train with PYR, it's just not in my DNA to switch up my formula.
In any event, there's nothing wrong with being a momentum investor and if that's how you want to play PYR there's a good chace you'll be rewarded. I hope you are.
I have no plans to stick around here long term, and in fact I had no plans to post anything after my warm reception last night. But with the Q3 financials coming out today I thought it would be worth stating how my opinion has changed from yesterday's posts.
Although many on this forum clearly don't like my approach, I would suggest those investors ask themselves why. Can we really not have a civilized conversation about the pros and cons of a public company? Seriously, we are not talking about religion. I hope there's one or two that have found my approach useful even if they don't agree. If not, that's fine too.
Best of luck to everyone here. No hard feelings. Hope you guys knock one out of the park.
sandysouci wrote: thanks for all those carefully calculated valuation numbers, but I'd say it's all a TOTAL WASTE OF TIME...
my opinion:
in the real world, stocks generally don't trade according to these types of scenarios... especially an emerging, relatively unknown microcap like PYR... often, it's not even close, and if you cling to those theoretical numbers and think the shares will eventually come to you, 9/10 times you will be surprised, and disappointed
personally I give the recent trading action for any stock 90% priority over everything else, and assume that most of "the numbers" have ALREADY been baked into the share price, and possibly even thrown aside and ignored (like with PYR)... oh, and whatever Olderguy and fdfd12 say gets the other 10%!
you mentioned Warren Buffet yesterday... yeah, that was great for him and yes he had a big advantage DECADES AGO, pre-internet, when he would spend countless hours doing major DD by manually digging through reports and spending countless hours analyzing companies -- when others weren't willing to put in all that hard work, or simply didn't have access to the necessary information... he deserved to win big, and he did... but notice he doesn't beat the market much anymore
a lot of that has changed, and the world is a much different place now... everyone has access to the info, too much actually... plus we live in a time when misinformation and opinions are running rampant all over the internet, can spread rapidly, and I would suggest that this has a far greater impact on the share price than any of the numbers (at least until concrete numbers get offcially released by a company)
don't believe me?.. pull up charts for Warren's BRK/B (Berkshire) and SPY (S&P 500) for the past while... he, like most other managers, gets beat by the passive index
anyway, hope it works out for you... whatever works
tomorrow (Thursday) will be interesting, I'm guessing we'll close at $4.10 +/- 5% ($3.90 - $4.30)
how about you?