RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Nice background ONC with Roche Why do I guess $13B to $20B ?
Roche's Tecentriq is in a $24B drug class for Breast Cancer (MBC). In there is also Merck and Pfeizer and possibly others that split the revenue of the $24B between then.
That's on their own, and Tecentriq is only working on 1 in 5 patients.
But with ONC Tecentriq will hopefully work on 98% and be further dialed by the biomarker.
so, my thought is all drugs in the $24B drug class will likely work better with ONC.
But now we need to add the cost of ONC to the new combined drug class using ONC.
So, my expectaion is that ONC will be involved with every treatment under that drug class as it makes them all work better.
But what is the cost of ONC?
Lets be conservative ( I think) and say ONC's cost will be 10% to 25% of the drug class adding on a $2.4B to $6B cost to the drug class, which is ONC market sale price.
Looking at other similar type companies the sales to market cap ratio is in the range of 5 times.
$2.4B market sales x 5 = $12B market cap or $289/share Cdn
$6B market sales x 5 = $30B market cap or about $610/share Cdn
but I think that is high.
and this is just one drug class for MBC.
There is still;
lung cancer
brain cancer
pancreatic cancer
prostate cancer
and will have market sales attached to that.
Being conservative again, a lower multipler might result in $20B Market Cap = $416/sp cdn
I am hoping for a buyout by June 2021,
but they might do a partnership.
Don't know. Hope not.
On the wild side, say the cost of ONC is 50% that is $12B in market sales
x a 5 time ratio multiplier would be $30B market cap or about $800/sp cdn.
for just one drug class, so you can imagine the potential. I am expecting ONC to anounce a projected number of market sales if the FDA approved market and ....
we are on our way !