Starsearcher80 wrote: This has certainly been a brutal year for the airlines. But with 2 major out-of-the-park vaccine on the very near horizon, and with the beginning of delivery expected in the next 14-21 days, it is also what makes this stock so enticing.
CIBC noted that with this vaccine announcements, that there had been a notable uptick in website traffic to the airlines, which is absolutely awesome. Personally, I've already booked two vacations, one for next July, and then another in the Fall. Typically, I've always been one to book early and by all indications this will be fine, with the masses expected to receive the vaccine in the April timeframe.
I have a couple of solid contacts in the travel industry, both of who own a travel company, so I made a call to see if they could confirm at all that people were starting to book. Both confirmed that they were experiencing a significant uptick in calls, and to a lesser extent, actual hard bookings. But both said the interest and calls were definitely suddenly back, and people were actively making plans which they are confident will lead to many many solid bookings. One of the persons even said that they were already in the process of bringing staff back to handle the influx.
Now to the stock. Bookings are revenues, and as this confidence returns to the market, I think we're going to see an absolute flood of bookings. EVERYONE needs a vacation and additionally, so many people just want the opportunity to visit with family. We're already seeing that need right now, with a huge uptick in passenger travel with the U.S. thanksgiving coming up. Where travel dropped 95% as the pandemic took hold, we are now seeing airline travel rates approaching 50% which is already a huge improvement, even in the midst of what is still a dangerous time. (
CLICK HERE for TSA Checkpoint Data)
Now, as it specifically applies to AC, pre-pandemic this was a $54.00 stock. The immediate question is how fast does the stock move back up? This is a bold prediction, but I'm going to say $30.00 before the end of December, which is a VERY healthy gain from current levels. If you look at the monthly chart back to last February, you'll see the horrific drop as the pandemic came in. While each day painted the daily drops, I'm willing to consider the ENTIRE section in the end of February through to mid-March one big gap down. To be sure here, I'm saying that this is NOT a series of daily drops, but essentially just ONE big collective drop. Furthermore, a drop that was an absolute anomoly due only to pandemic circumstances.
In the recovery process, around $22.00 represents the resistance point to any upside share price recovery to date. This area was tested on 3 different occasion in April and May based on some early/naive thoughts that this pandemic would somehow just go away. But here we are again, on the precipice of testing the $22.00 range, but now under a TOTALLY different scenario. The vaccines are now proven and about to be delivered, and this recovery will be absolutely real. I expect the stock to blow through this level with complete ease.
With this burst coming through $22.00, and the entire section above $22.00 considered just one big gap down, I think we're going to be seeing a signifcant updraft above $22.00 as there are no resistance points. Furthermore, gap fills are a natural and common process in the market. The next resistance I see at all is actually not until the $35.00 area, but for now I'll leave it at $30.00 by year's end. That massive move up is only in the next 5 weeks or so, so that's bold enough for right now I think.
I was saying to my family that this is the easiest money I'll make on a stock. We have a world class airline, currently at firesale prices, due to an artificial situation that is about to be completely resolved. It really doesn't get any better than that! Enjoy the updraft everyone. As horrific as the move down was, this move up should be equally powerful and VERY lucrative.