RE:RE:RE:A BOLD PREDICTION OF $30.00 BY DEC 31STThanks for the comments back 1B. All comments are certainly worthy of consideration.
1) I agree with the adjusted high shareprice of $47.00
2) With regard to the business traveller, I DO think this will come back. Zoom video may have shown some viable pandemic alternative, but there is really nothing that can compare to face to face. Furthermore, we certainly had pre-pandemic video conference options, available for several years now, but those didn't dent business travel. It's becaause zoom can't replace in-person business relationship building. It's the face to face component, but also the social "get to know you/like you component that absolutely IS a part of business. For example, it's why a round of golf is more than just a round of golf. Or going out after the meeting for drinks and dinner, is more than just drinks and dinner. Business travel imho will return as strong.
3) A beautiful ride from $16 to $27? Absolutely! Part of my own personal training is to never consider a stock by either how much I've made, or lost. To do that imho, torques rational thinking as to whether there is rational reason to either buy or sell, based solely on whther there is more reason for upside or downside from a given price point. Many people who are new to the market succumb to these emotional cosniderations, saying newbe-type statements such as "I can't sell now, I've lost too much," or taking a profit too early, because a profit feels good, only to leave the far bigger run on the table and watching from the outside of what could have been. To be fair, you'll never go broke taking a profit. For myself, I just choose to stand back from any gain or loss, and evealuate the upside/dowside potentail, essentially pretending I'm completely new to the stock. This strategy keeps you more honest and balanced.
4) While I agreed with your $47 re-evaluation of the share price due to some dilution, I don't think you've put back in the worth of the Transat deal at stunning bargain prices, or the Aeroplan, or the decreased global competition with a lot of airlines having gone under or severely crippled. Now, how much that is all worth remains to be seen/calculated, but at first blush I think it may be worrth more than the dilutive effect. TBA on that one.
All for now. Thanks again for the valued discussion.
lb1temporary wrote: I agreed with your prediction 2 weeks ago and I still think that the SP will reach the 30-35$ level before the summer, at least for a short period.
But I sold my last options this morning while the SP was at 27,30$. Options lost value with time ( till the term) so I have to manage the volatility. My bet is a pullback or a pause ( even with a pause options lost value).
My choice to invest with a leverage.
The reasons:
- we had a beautifull ride from 16$ to 27$ in only one month; its a lot even if the situation is dramatically different with the vaccine certainty. Some could take their profits.
- The ultimate target could not be the 52 weeks high of 53$ because we had a dilution (high adjusted at 47$), the company have a debt load radically different and the return of the business traveller is at least uncertain.
Maybe I will miss some opportunity but options strategies give a huge returns only if we manage them with caution.
Air Canada already gave us our christmas gifts.
I'm still bullish and good luck for all.