RE:RE:RE:RE:L2's showing $1.70 (again). $700+ lumber (again). $7/share??PaperBoi222 wrote: Desperros,
Yup small world indeed I think it was back in 2017 when we last connected, That was a rewarding stock I was in under a 1.00 and I seem to recall 4.50 or abouts was the take out price.
Now what’s the chance we connect again and this one gets taken out? DeJa’Vu methinks so.
I agree this one has way more value not reflected in the share price yet or again it certainly looks to be a possible target for take out.
Being a Value vulture I own a mitt full of this stock as well some other value plays in several industries.
Please stay in Good Health and lets make some money.
Cheers
PB
Oh if you like wood check out ADN & GDL. both great value but this one offers the long shot of better returns. Cant make up my mind on Canfor. CFX.. And hate WEF. :)- don’t like IFP as we're competitors in paper. haha
Good thinking, thanks! I try and watch ADN pretty closely and see a lot of value there. In fact, I as 2021 is shaping up to be so strong, I'm thinking it might be a good place to park some gains in. I am hoping to build on the good results I've had this year further, and think I might be able to get another 200% on CFF, 100% on RFP, 100% on RYAM, 50% on WFT/OSB, and 50% on IFP. In that case, I'll jump into ADN very hard. GDL... Goodfellow? I will have to read the annual report sometime. I haven't seen the site in over a decade -- I interviewed with them coming out of school as I recall, but opted to join one of the more mainstream sawmillers as they paid more.
I am warming up to CFX at this price, but I'm a bit hazy on pulp prospects so I am much heavier into RFP as the lumber is the key asset and something I'm better with in terms of the fundamentals, but still with pulp upside. That said, CFX might just get rolled into CFP if the mgmt team there can't find a deal. Or in addition to a deal. Current CFX market cap = CFP's Q3 cash earnings lol. So why not just throw Q4 cash at it. Buying the 45% for $14 would cost em ~$450M so chump change. Not a great deal for Canfor shareolders, but few of that companies decisions are meant to help that group -- it's an entity for Jimmy to expand his empire and for mgmt to make a pretty cushy living, little else.
CFP seems very focused on growth and must be livid WFT scooped Norbord. Going back to just buying the remaining 45% of CFX as a synergy and to be rid of the listing fees, etc. It makes zero sense as a stand-alone entity. It's not even a good acquisition vehicle, so I have no idea why it's traded as a stand alone ticker. I say that as they couldn’t even buy that nice NBSK Weyco mill in Grande Prairie and got scooped by IP a few years back.
Maybe it could, as an asset that trades at a steep discount to book and intrinsic value, go run around and buy orphan pulp assets for even cheaper. But that seems like a weird thing to do. I figure we can get $10 to $12/share when it rolls into CFP.
Anyway, I'm looking forward to when more institutional money comes into the sector. Like Prem Watsa in RFP, or Jimmy with Canfor. CFF should catch some of that. They have potential but have executed inconsistently, so I'd like to see them join the fold elsewhere. The worst would be an equity deal brokered by a WEF or something. Worst of both worlds. The best, I think, is get the SP up a few bucks, then sell to a private business like a Tolko or Hampton that can dig deep to pay 2x whatever the ceiling lands at with the uncertainly and overhang that Ken causes by his lack of vision or guiding principles for the business. It's been a year since the RBC "saved by the bell" note and not a word as been uttered about what this is, or why it exists. Well other than some sort of stoic character building exercise for the likes of me who keep being amazed how they can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.