Alternative Scenario: What if CDPQ had invested "en haut" ?Instead of investing in BT, they bought BBD.B shares. By my guesstimate, there would be ~4B shares outstanding instead of ~2.4B (based on USD1.5B x 1.33 exchange and $1.25 share price in November 2015 when the deal was announced).
But also, net of Alstom shares, Bombardier's debt would be close to nil (I'll know for sure after Q4 #'s released - I'll have to capture how much dividend CDPQ received from BBD...).
The break-even of the company would be closer to $900M per quarter I'm guessing. Which means their break-even backlog would be more than 4 years. Company would be in the best financial position of any of the competition able to invest new planes, etc...Future would be undoubted.
IMO, the share price would be at least $2 (4B shares x $2 / 1.33 = USD$6B) and going up from there. Which means that ceteris paribus, in order for CDPQ not to have profited from the situation at the expense of other shareholders with the structure they imposed on Bombardier, that's where the share price would need to be when the deal with Alstom closes.
YMMV