Strong and weak points on Ebitda 2020 numbers !Just want to share with you what I have in store for ALA performance:
First observation:
-RIPET EBITDA numbers:
A long showing but worth to take note and made your own apreciation for
the EBITDA story for the first 6 quarters in operation:
Quarters EBITDA
Q3 2019 $ 37 M
Q4 2019 $ 36 M
Total 2019 $ 73 M
So the first 2 2019 quarters operation were outstanding.
Now the 2020 numbers
Q1 2020 $ 27 M
Q2 2020 $ 30 M
Q3 2020............$ 23 M
Q4 2020............$.........
To make a projection for the Q4 2020 I made and average of the 5 last RIPET quarters and give a $ 30 M
for the Q4 2020 and a totall of $ 110 M or 50 % increase from the 2019 EBITDA number.
Great increased on a Y/Y but not so big looking at the 2020 numbers were the EBITDA is weakening dramatically Q/Q in 2020
Hedging is a very important factor in the equation and it works on the buying and selling side.Just to say that in the 2020 the operation was not so good compare to the first 2019 6 months operation.
However confident for the 2021 number and the Q4 2020 could give us a good indication of the RIPET EBIDA number going forward.
Not to forget the exportation numbers in the coming months.
Second observation;
Refinancing:
3 successfull refinancing t of $ 1,2 B at a rate of 2,1 % and reducing the financial cost of $ 17 M for five years average
Third observation
Weakening of the $ US / $ CN that will shrink the top line revenue in Canadian $
Fourth obsevation
The 1 700 000 customers from Michigan/Maryland/DC/Virginial/Alaska producing a US 4,13 B base rated revenue with a steady 8,o% increase on a yearly basis.
Fifth obsevation
Petrogas acquisition:
Over the trailing 12 months as of June 30, 2020, normalized EBITDA was approximately $218-million. Within these normalized figures, the positive impact of contract settlements or other factors have been backed out to not overinflate the trailing average for any one-time events that are unlikely to repeat in the future. These trailing financial figures compare with AltaGas recording average normalized three-year equity earnings and preferred share dividends of $34-million. Had AltaGas owned its new pro forma 74-per-cent equity interest over 2017 to 2019, the company's higher ownership position would have generated approximately $152-million higher average three-year normalized annual EBITDA over this same period.
Just to show the additional EBITDA to ALA coming forward.
Sixth observation
Gas gathering & processing,NGL extraction and fractionation ,transportation and storing producing a steady additional EBITDA
So overall a huge Midstream and Utility operation generating a 5,0 % yield.
Cannot be more ''bullish''about this outstanding but ''hated'' company!