RE:RE:Does any one on here know...
Backinblack1000 wrote: Hey..JayBanks...your best bet would be to contact cardinal IR directly...and consult a qualified investment professional.....obviously tax loss and averaging down have no been utilized, so if you are still sitting late 2018....then you need professional help.
In all honesty I’ve been pretty horrible in Oil/Gas investing, I try and get in when I believe there is ‘Blood in the streets’ but I get get in at bad times and hold on, and I don’t throw a stop-loss on them because I invest what I’m willing to lose in them, and I usually do. That’s a big ‘me’ problem!
I got in first when oil first fell from $120, and I jumped in at 70-65 not thinking it would fall much further, oooooh but it did. My names at that time, Crescent Point, Bonterra and Twin Butte, I’ve rode that collapse all the way down and still hold my shares in all 3 (Twin Butte is in a taxable account and I’m waiting to write off when I have a good tax year) I lost about 85% on those I also owned Black Diamond as an add on and lost about 80% on that.
After making investments else where to stabilize my portfolio , I got into short term trading oils again with Athabasca, White Cap, Obsidian, Nexgen, Pengrowth all for ok gains. That made me confidant and I threw longer term money at Cardinal and SDX, which has led to about 60% losses combined.
I’ve had a mixed bag on pipelines/support, owning Veresen and doubling a large amount of money in less than 2 years, then jumped in Pembina and am almost flat (which isn’t good cause it’s a 4-5 year time loss), I also have Russel Metals as support for oil industry and I have a 30% gain on that, held Altagas for many years, but it’s now more a utility than pipeline and I have a 17% loss there over 6 years, and a small gain in PHX on a short term trade.
Usually I've bought oil players in a TFSA so my losses aren't tax deductible, that said, Cardinal is in a taxable account, but I haven't been earning a sizeable, stable income the past few years of working so taking a tax loss wouldn't help me at all as I haven't been paying much in taxes. This is also why I haven't averaged down. Gotta remember everyone's financial situations are different.
Basically don’t ask me for advice on oil/gas, I’m fairly familiar with the players, but I’ll ask questions to learn from better people.
Kontrary wrote: I hate to say it, but my suspicion is that they won't reinstate the dividend until they pay off a good chunk of their debt. The events last year have likely made management very risk averse to carrying a lot of debt. Currently, they are carrying more than 5X Net Debt/2020 Forecast AFFO. My guess is that they would like to pay off at least a quarter of their current debt before they start to think about a dividend again, which would bring them down to around 3X Forecast Net Debt/Forecast 2021 AFFO.
That being said, they are forecasting to pay off $41M in debt this year, assuming that WTI is US$/52 Bbl and the WCS differential is -$13.50. Oil is currently trading higher than those values.so the year is off to a good start.
I'm all for getting the debt leverage way down and am willing to continue to wait, I've also wanted to average it down for better gains later, but I haven't had the income and free cash flow myself for it.
I'd figure that if you offer the small dividend, get a stock jump up, you'd have a better borrowing capacity with more options or just at more favourable rates.
Cardinal reminds me of the Twin Butte situation, but this has survived. Twin Butte had huge leverage, but was also pulling in a large free cash flow that more than covered the dividend, debt costs and cost of business expenses, to my understanding, the only reason they were culled is because the bank wanted out of all oil accounts and no other banks wanted to add an oil company debt to thier books.