RE:RE:Feasability study within 4 weeks = Share Price action soon A lot of junior companys really do themselves a disservice by inflating the numbers of a PEA or PFS, then the DFS becomes a dissappointment, and the share price takes a flop. Hopefully GENM management did not do that in their PEA!
I do like that they are increasing the tonnage from 5 to 9 mtpa, cosnidering the Pd price environment I think this is a good decision. They've managed to increase recoveries of both Pd and Cu which is nice. Though initial CAPEX will be higher, operating costs should decrease due to economies of scale. IF, (a big IF), operating costs are flat (or decreased), these changes should have a big effect on NPV which is already stellar for a company with this MC.
I invested in a gold company, Cardinal resources about a year ago in a similar situation. Large rererve base (5M oz gold), about 280,000 oz PA, completing a DFS. The DFS numbers were not better than the PFS, higher opex actually, and there was absolutely no market response. Did nothing for about 6 months until permits were received and Nord gold and Shandong started bidding on the company. Ended up selling for around $600 mil ozzie. In Ghana. Not a single publicly listed company bid on this project, likely due to metallurgical issues (refractory gold). If Cardinal is worth $600 mill, with metallurgical issues in Africa, What is Generation worth in Canada? Similar deposit size, similar grade and initial CAPEX, similar production rates and life of mine. DFS will shed more light on metallurgical issues/process routes (but I do take comfort that Drew Anwyll is a process engineer and has dumped a whole lot of his own money at market into the company). It may take a while for full value to be realised, but for quality assets, it will happen. Junior goldies will always have a higher MC early in the development cycle, simply because of the allure of GOLD.
I think that if the DFS surprises to the upside the market will take notice, but it needs to be significantly to the upside. Otherwise the real catatyst will be the granting of mining permits. That's when any suitors will sit up and take notice. Remember Lunding mining made a play for TImok a while ago, so it's not all about Sibanye.
It's not my intention to pump, but I believe a fair takeout price is in the range of $1billion CAD. This will be a 1-1.5 yr timeframe after permits are received and detailed met engineering has been completed (assuming no red flags). If indeed this goes into production, MC could possibly double again, but that is a 2-3 yr time range.