GREY:NEVDQ - Post by User
Post by
Notgnuon Feb 20, 2021 2:56pm
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Post# 32619358
Focus on this
Focus on thisI am too busy with 3 different separated but married women (seems to have become a specialty of sorts) needing some attention this weekend but will say this...
- Try focus on the big picture (weigh in on the post below... the long game :))
- If the price goes down over this nonesense it will pay-off big time for whoever is lucky enough to catch the lows of any dip and I will be there too.
- Year end is probs 2 to 5 weeks away so lots of games will be played by the basher crowd and soft bash crowd.
- This is a world class project now that the copper bull is waking up.
Cheers,
Notgnu
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Open pit deal at $4.00 to $5.00 copper >>> weekend homework!
Here's a scanario for you smart guys over the weekend to rip up.
Carving out the Pumpkin underground gets us a cash-flow of $120 million++ USD after ramp up.
- $4.00 copper less $1.86 cost = $2.04 X 65m pounds / yr = $132,000,000 profit
HBM, RIO, ABX etc come in and take 50% of the open pit at full 70,000 tpd.
- 70,000 tpd is about 200 million pounds copper per year
- 100 million pounds goes to NCU
- 100 million pounds goes to the partner
Capitol cost to build is $800 million
- PM stream is sold by us and nets $350 million (just a guess until I do more work)
- We cover the other $50 million from cash flow
The partner builds / runs the mine and we harvest:
- $120 million / year underground
- $250 million / year open pit
Our total free cash-flow is $370 million / year (and much higher if copper goes up more) which gets a higher multiple of
8X due to the partner and scale etc
- 8 X $370 million = ~3 billion / shares out = $1.50 per share for us (bird in had) within 12 months and off we go.
Thoughts?
Cheers,
Notgnu