RE:RE:RE:RE:A list of available land...Jeff, I greatly appreciate your detailed explanation of of the constraints facing utility scale renewable power projects.
As the point person for a landowner in New England who is buying and leasing land for commercial solar projects at all stages from built to under agreement, I can affirm that everything you wrote makes complete sense to me.
In New England, a potential solar site can tick all the other boxes perfectly, but stays unbuilt if the nearest substations are maxed out. When the local grid can't take the power without developer funded, expensive upgrades, then all but the biggest projects are dead. The price tag to apply for what is called an interconnection application (equivalent to PR's System Facility Study) runs $50k for a 1 MW commercial solar project. That will only tell you if you can get an interconnection agreement and how much more (6 to 7 figures) you will need to pay the utility for the upgrades to connect your project.
The crux of what Jeff is saying is that Montalva and the other legacy solar projects have a substantial moat. Newer projects will have to spend big, non-refundable dollars just to find out if their site can be connected to the grid at an additional cost that doesn't destroy their profits.
Also adding to the moat, I expect that Montalva's long standing agreement to provide power to PREPA gives it priority over any new renewable project that seeks to connect to the grid in their local area going forward. In other words, Montalva has the first spot in the local connection queue that a new project in the next RFP cannot jump over.
I continue to believe Montalva will get built it is just a matter of when it gets the green light from the politicians.