Incitec Pivot Ltd T.IPL

RE:RE:RE:RE:What the market is REALLY saying ....

[Maxmoe]

Yes, a much less rude way of pulling down his drawers, pointing, and yelling, HEY! LOOK! AN ASSH@LE!

Dementedaccount wrote:

I am not sure you are correct....the amount of shares is also capped at 19 million shares...value of offer is not $19.4 per share..on a prorated basis if everyone went shares and were then forced allocated cash value of the offer is about $17.18 when you consider the pro ration...here is the actual circular language...it is pretty clear the max number of shares are capped..
 

"Total consideration under the Offer is comprised of cash and BIPC shares, where:

Cash consideration is subject to an aggregate limit of approximately $4.9 billion

The number of BIPC shares available under the Offer is limited to approximately 19 million

Cash consideration represents 76.2% of the total consideration under the Offer"

 

FreddieMac wrote:

 

It's actually the other way around:  the amount of $$ to be paid is capped.  
Go on SEDAR, look up the Brookfield circular and read it instead of making up make believe fact patterns that don't reflect reality.  

It's amazing the number of people on this site who play "what if" without even checking their facts first or doing even the most basic research available to all members of the internet-connected public.   

 

mrbb wrote:

 

i have not received the offer from the mail yet so i can't read the detail.

What if there is a cap amount of BIP shares for the swap? That could mean paying out 16.5 for each ipl share that can't be swapped. 

size

FreddieMac wrote: There have been a lot of posts on this forum about how the rise in IPL's share price above the $16.50 cash offer is somehow an indication that "the Market" believes a higher bid or some higher priced outcome is therefore increasingly likely.

It seems folks have either forgotten or choose to ignore the following:

Brookfield's bid is for cash OR  stock in BIPC.   If people take the BIPC stock, they get 0.206 of a BIPC share for each IPL share.

So today BIPC closed at $94.19.   So if a sale of IPL to Brookfield were to happen today, any IPL shareholder taking BIPC shares would get for EACH IPL share owned:
$94.19 X 0.206 =   $19.40  worth of BIPC  stock at today's price.

     And yet IPL is trading at $18.34 and people are using this as an indication that the market has rejected the $16.50 cash offer.   Far from it, the market is in fact DISCOUNTING a successful share for share transaction. 

So, folks, once the share price of IPL EXCEEDS  the product of 0.206 times the $$ price of a BIPC share,  THEN and only then will IPL shareholders be able to crow and claim some forward progress (but not necessarily victory).

But it's interesting to watch people get way out front of the facts with these fantastical conclusions that I've seen on this board.....