RE:$65 a shareFrom another investor.... this was from avanzalg on seeking alpha's article...
"1) PFS using an expensive solid-liquid separation process
During the last years, the company worked out a key component to make the sulphuric acid leach work, the solid-liquid separation process. In the PFS they had to go with a fairly costly solution to this, making up a considerable part of the operating cost presented in the PFS. With the hydrochloric leach process, that solid-liquid separation seems to no longer be needed, since it separates on its own. Without the need for the separation process, they might be able to reduce the operating cost per tonne significantly.
2) The sulfuric acid "scalability cap" will no longer be an issue.
The PFS output of 27.4 was constrained by the supply of molten sulfur to the site, a hazardous substance to handle. With the new hydrochloric acid leach, they won't be reliant on any outside supply, which means they'll be able to increase output much more freely. The one thing that kept them from increasing the output is now gone. To produce more hydrochloric acid, the only thing they'll need is:
A) Brine (NaCl "table-salt" + water) (ALB??)
B) Electricity
3. With the shift in process, the largest portion of CYP's operating cost shifts from sulfur to electricity. Meaning, the cheaper the electricity, the cheaper the operating cost per tonne. Now, solar power cost is decades ahead of forecasts set during the 2010s, reaching prices as low as $0.05/kWh in 2020 which will most likely continue to outperform experts' price projections due to the nature of disruptive technology.
So what does that mean? It means that if Cypress is able to produce their hydrochloric acid on-site with material sourced on their (or ALBs???) ground, with cheap solar produced on their land, with nothing putting a cap on their output volume- they might become the largest, most sustainable & lowest-cost producer in the world of battery-grade lithium hydroxide."
Adding battery packs to this might also help? Either way... this should be trading north of 40% EV/NPV - which means 7-8 a share as of now. Add future gains and any premium offers to that.... $15 a share let's GOOOOOOOO. Selling for anything less would be utterly atrocious considering we now sit at over 6.2M tonnes LCE. This is LARGER THAN LAC'S OFFICIAL NUMBERS - WITH NONE OF THEIR DOWNSIDES. NO TROUT, NO PRONGHORNS, NO LOVING CAMPERS HOLDING EACH OTHER TO KEEP WARM, NO LAWSUITS - JUST SCOOP AND PLAY CLAY.
CYP needs to push ahead strong and leave the NDAs if they are not willing to pay up fair value in relation to the entire property not just the PFS after the pilot is done. Enough is ENOUGH.
yakattack wrote: Do I have your attention? Good. Now read.
CYP's NPV(8%) using the current $13k/tonne pricing is equal to US $1.88 billion, or C$2.35 billion
Given the same valuation model as Piedmont is trading (ON THE MARKET!), currently trading at 127.4% of their NPV(8%).. CYP should have a market cap of
C$2.99 billion.. or roughly C$20/share ....
That's accounting for 1/4th of the project with the past (lesser) extraction tech using sulphuric acid, numbers will be even better with hydrochloric acid.
MASSIVE
Now here's some food for thought..... if the market values Piedmont at over 1 BILLION for their project, which is less than 1/10th the size of CYP.... if you were to simply compare project size to market value.... that would mean that CYP is worth over 10 BILLION.... or north of $65 a share (if the entire project was to be utilized).
This does not account for REEs either - just existing valuations...
Will it get to $65 a share? No.
Should it get to $8-$10 a share, to be followed by a proper premium of 80-100% for $15-$20+ a share? It's possible - and it should be done.
Any NDA knows very damn well what the numbers would be post-pilot. Makes no sense to drag this on and on.
I cannot see CYP being purchased for $7-$8 a share... because that would only be equal to existing peer averages. You don't get a buyout offer that is the average of existing market caps for your competition.
This means $10+ a share - and it better be before August.