LUG + NCM (Sooner) vs CGP + NCM (Later)Newcrest managers are no strangers to risk analysis.
And we ALL observe some of the same strategic missteps being made by NCM's competitors - such as Newmont's placing their Nevada earnings into tough places like northern BC where NEW mine developments meet native resistance.
Newcrest knows the scene here also.
LUG, to a great extent, is already a subsidiary of Newcrest.
However I believe NCM needs to win over other LUG shareholders to consolidate operations.
And I doubt that NCM has strong interest in Bluestone.
For Newcrest, using its stock to buy LUG increases liquidity and ETF exposure on major exchanges.
Lundin Gold has become a known quantity to Newcrest.
And unlike the Chinese operating at Mirador, Lundin has operated SAFELY in Ecuador.
For LUG, Newcrest shares (or cash) provides cash for "general purposes".
And as of today, LUG needs to figure out what it wants to be - another chapter for sure.
So what may be changing against the backdrop of the Ecuador federal election is a placement of a chunk of Newcrest's growing pile of green from operations.
And management's eyes have turned AWAY from Cornerstone and Alpala TOWARD Lundin Gold and Fruta del Norte.
This mught explain why CGP's stock price fell in January.
Newcrest can easily wait for this next PEA or PFS or whatever arrives to Alpala by Christmas.
And consolidating its ownership of Fruta del Norte can wiat till after this April 11th runoff.
But I doubt that THIS OPPORTUNITY would wait much longer.
I'll go farther.
One of Newcrest's bargaining points may be a comparison of how much it ALREADY makes from Fruta del Norte (loans, NSR, etc) versus what Lundin Gold makes from the same operation.
We c.....