What to expect from the Q1 2021In 2021 EBITDA Total was $ 1 310 on a Revenue of $ 5 587 M
The guidance for 2021 is $ 1,4 @ 1 ,5 B
«which represents approximately 12-per-cent year-over-year growth using midpoint guidance numbers»
So taking for granted the top end of the guidance ALA need
$ 190 M and because of the seasonnability Q1 has to be around 40 % or an increase of $76 M more than Q1 2020 or $ 499 M plus $ 575 M
Facts :
-Just considering the Petrogas acquisition where Randy is expecting an EBITDA of $ 225 M for the year, the Q1 should look like 40% of $ 225 M or $ 90 M
-Shippement in the Q1 at Ferdale is looking very good and according to the note from RFGugsd the number of LPG tankers in the Q1 might be 5 .Just assuming on more LPG Tanker may add an extra $ 5 M Ebitda
- Same observation at RIPET and probably 1 more Shippement for an extra $ 5 M
-Extra revenues on Utilities with a 8 % increase .
As a note: Utilities in revenue for 2021 was $ 3 817M and 40% in the Q1 the Revenue is estimated $ 1 526 M and could be a supplement of $ 76 M less $ 6 M for foreign exchange loss,
As a summary
1 Petrogas + $ 90 M
2 Ferndale + $ 5 M one extra load
3 RIPET +$ 5 M one extra load
4 Increase utiliities $ 70 M
EBITDA increase Total $ 170 M
This observation shows that ALA will almost double the expected EBITDA increase in the Q1 2021 for a total of
$ 499 M + $ 170 M =$ 669 M or 34 % Q1 2020/Q1 2021
This summary looks to me too nice and Mr Market is becoming to take note of this spectacular showing of ALA