RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Convinced?
Between 2000 and 2020, Canada’s population increased by 24 percent from 30.5 million to 38 million, an annual compound growth rate of 1.1 percent. In 2000, the number of Canadians age 70 or older represented 8.4 percent of the population. In 2020, the number of Canadians age 70 or older represented 12.2 percent of the population. Individuals between 85 and 89 alone increased from 275,000 in 2000 to 517,000 in 2020, representing an 88 percent increase over this period, or 3.2 percent annually. More significantly, the number of Canadians 90 and above increased from 135,000 in 2001 (no data for 2000) to 322,000 in 2020. This represents an overall increase of 238 percent over the 19 year period, a 4.7 percent annual increase. And most significantly, Canadians 100 years and older increased from 3,522 in 2001 to 11,500 in 2020, a 326 percent increase, or 6.4 percent annual increase.
The combination of an increasing population and changing demographics reflecting a significant increase in an aging population, not to mention a very significant increase in those age 90 and above should all point to a growing number of annual deaths from all causes in Canada.
This is what we are seeing.
Total annual deaths in Canada from all causes, increased from 217,000 in 2000 to 300,000 in 2020, representing an annual (compound) increase of 1.64 percent. In the last number of years, the annual number of deaths has increased at a much higher rate than the 20-year average. This is to be expected given that a growing number of Canadians are living much longer, especially those 90 and older. From 2016 until 2020, the annual number of deaths increased from 262,000 to 287,000 representing a 3.1 percent increase.
Covid-19 deaths in Canada in 2020: 15,606 of which about 80 percent (12,400) occurred in government owned and/or regulated long-term care facilities. About 3,200 died outside of LTC facilities. Canada committed 1.3 percent of GDP to publicly funded LTC services compared to an OECD average of 1.7 percent.
If the three-year average (2016 to 2019) is applied to 2020 values, using 2019 as the baseline, then expected deaths in 2020 based should be 296,000. Actual 2020 deaths from all causes (including Covid-19) were 300,000 or 4000 more.
In 2016, 6200 Canadians died from influenza and pneumonia. In 2018, 8,700 Canadians died from influenza and pneumonia, a difference of 2,500.
Increase in suicides and drug-related deaths in 2020? Unknown at this time.