CIBC: Solid Start To 2021 For CHRFrom Transportation & Aerospace Weekly::
Key Points
CHR’s shares have ebbed and flowed with commercial airline equities, exhibiting a high correlation with AC’s share price. CHR has a solid start to 2021 which we believe has largely gone unnoticed. Again, this past week we saw Voyageur announce a new contract, having been awarded a three-year contract to upgrade and modify Transport Canada’s National Aerial Surveillance Program (NASP) fleet of three Dash 8-100s and Dash 7s with new surveillance equipment.
CHR has been on a roll this year. YTD, CAC (Chorus Aviation Capital) has announced three of its repossessed aircraft have been leased out again (a Dash 8-400 to National Jet Express and two Dash 8-400s Sky Alps). Voyageur also announced it was successful in securing contract extensions with the UN for four CRJ2000s and won a bid for a new five-year contract with Ambulance New Brunswick. And with its recent capital raise, CHR is better positioned to continue to take advantage of its growth pipeline, especially with our view that more airlines will look to lease their aircraft coming out of the pandemic.
Lastly, with AC and CHR amending the terms of the CPA back in March and AC securing government financial assistance, this eliminates for us the counterparty concerns we have heard from investors.
We recognize the global airline industry continues to face the impacts from the pandemic but we also believe we are finally on the path to a sustainable recovery. We would again note that domestic travel has been leading the recovery which is the market CAC is most exposed to given it leases regional jets and turboprops.
Net-net, CHR’s financial performance in 2020 proved to be more resilient than a commercial airline and more attune to what we saw from the aircraft leasing equities. In Q4/20, CHR noted rent collection within RAL (Regional Aircraft Leasing) was 60% and expected to trend at these levels through 2021. We believe CHR’s relative cash flow resiliency, liquidity buffer, and the contractual nature of its revenues remain underappreciated when looking at its share price performance.