TD: Value Creation Momentum Intact Impact: POSITIVE
We are hosting Power Corp management on May 25, at 11:30 a.m. ET for a virtual panel focused on PowerCos broad asset management/wealth management assets across Great-West, IGM, and PowerCo. If interested, please register here.
We have updated our estimates to reflect the Q1/21 earnings beat and modest changes elsewhere. Our $42.00 target price and BUY rating are unchanged. Q1/21 conference call takeaways:
PowCos's NAV/share continues to expand. As of May 14, 2021, it is $51.22/ share, up 11% vs. $45.94 as of Q1/21, and up 24% vs. $41.27/share as of Q4/20. This reflects growth in the value of PowerCo's public assets, and value-creating transactions for Lion Electric (merged with Northern Genesis SPAC on May 6, 2021; increased NAV by $0.52/share), and Wealthsimple (third-party financing round in May 2021; increased NAV by $0.94/share).
Management's vision for value creation at PowerCo has four legs. Support higher EPS growth (within operating cos and at the PowerCo level); operating co multiple expansion; drive higher NAV/share; and a tighter discount to NAV for PowerCo. We continue to see the discount as too wide, given the positive steps management has taken around simplification, transparency, lower expenses, and surfacing value (currently 26.7% vs. a L5Y/L10Y average of 22.2%/21.3%).
We see further value-creation potential. Earnings growth at operating cos; accretive M&A; and continuing to move capital away from standalone investments towards supporting the alternative investment platform.
The alternative investment platform continues to show progress. AUM of $11.3bln (funded and unfunded) is up 102% y/y (33% q/q). Third-party capital now represents 63% of total AUM, up from 58% q/q and 56% y/y.
TD Investment Conclusion
Efforts to simplify the organization and increase disclosure are well-received and the share price and valuation have responded positively. We view management's execution on value-surfacing transactions such as Lion Electric and Wealthsimple positively. Current valuation remains attractive, in our view.