Very bad news: — Corton sold WEF. My take. Where is Louel? “The Corton Global Timber Fund has no investment in companies logging on Vancouver Island. Last month we sold 100% of our position in Western Forest Products Inc. – a major logger on Vancouver Island."
https://cortoncapitalinc.ca/publications
These guys are the best in the business. I'm "out" of everything on forestry when I chickened out 4 weeks back to make sure the gains is made didn't backslide, but I'm hoping to get back in soon once I see the downward trend reverse. A few years ago I would have been chiming in with you all re "it's undervalued" but it takes a special kind of exceptionalism to believe your option can withstand the combined weight of a market that clearly disagrees. You can be either right or make money. You guys are right but that might not pay then bills
I am a bit more humble and a lot faster to take money off the table based on this outlook. This board has some good traders on it. Moreover, the west coast guys I learned from were top notch. I have strong convictions, weakly held. I look forward to being able to get back long again but it's highly unlikely that you will see that until the decline in lumber futures reverses to at least sideways. Not saying you need to catch that falling knife the day of, nor would that be possible, but that's my general goal. The market is discounting out at least 6 months of steady price erosion guys that's why this is weakening may (in my books) likely to continue. That's why a SIB is irresponsible currently, not to say that means Don and Co don't do one anyway.
The other overhang is the log exports, political lightning rod on OG harvest, and the spectre of wild tariffs again. On OG, Mosaic has little now as their low elevation DF is mostly 2nd or 3rd growth now and moreover their dirty top of mountain hemlock that is technically OG got monetized for carbon credits (a coup; very well done). On tariffs, WEF and JDI (not public) are at greatest risk in my view. JDI as New Brunswick refuses to budge on cheap stumpage and they may get slammed -- soon -- with a "Truck You" duty from down south. If you're that inept and tone deaf to not even react an inch on stumpage, you risk inviting a 80%+ levy. Look at the numbers bandied about for things like gypsum -- these tariffs can be 150%+ easy. Western has less risk than JDI, but as I recall their effective stumpage rate is near zero as the costs of (very expensive) roads and whatnot can be netted out. My like the scummy and putrid oil royalty regime in vintage 'Berta that gave them a negligible warchest and the "gift" of $200k truck drivers that was an absolute curse for resourcing in forestry up north for ages. Absolute imbeciles making policy there. WEF and BC broadly just need to be careful, as it's bipolar -- brutal and crippling BCTS prices but basically free coastal stumpage is inchorerant. Ultimately, WEFs lack of geographic diversification is acute and highly uncomfortable. Don and the board should be let go based on how untenable the situation has become. It's like a hockey GM who squanders high draft pick after high draft pick. You have to execute, guys. Your platform is a fundamentally inadaquate so the whole "optimizing" of it is ok.. but not ok if done exclusively
Anyway, I will post this once and go away. I expect the howls of tribal contempt drown this out as it's neither shilling the (frankly weird) undervalued narrative or congratulating Scooter and Squee and Leo and Biff and pretty much every weird frat house alias listed by Brett Kavanauh in his deposition for the SCOTUS for their remarkable genuius and dashing good looks. Thank you Leo and Squee and Jim-Bob, you are truely scholars and gentlemen and I'm forever in your debt.
Final aside. Pick your allies. Read some of those Corton analysis pieces. They are literally the best investment pro voice in the biz now, even outshining Paul Quinn. I try and be contrarian but not contrarian to the point where I'm betting against guys who are smarter and more connected than I am in the space. There aren't many, which is not a reflection of me being any good but rather the dismal state of the analysts out there. The disingenuousness and sheer fecklessness of BMO and BNS (not sure how they approached WEF but based on their broad market take and disdain for "value" stocks) means I'll take the opposite position on those guys every day of the week where it makes sense. And I have and appreciate how easy they make it to generate some solid returns (eg on Resolute).
Last (and this is phone typed so I'm not editing or spell checking it) the best guy on thIs board historically was Louel. He was not young and a consistent poster, so my worry is understandable there after then 6 or 12 month blackout period. My worry is he may not be with us any more. If so, I'll pour a drink of something expensive for the man. If it's an RIP situation, just want to remember a cagey and highly intelligent man who shared many great insights from a lifetime both working in and investing well in the forestry sector. I'd be amazed if, reading between the lines, he didn't accumulate an 8th digit in his net worth. That's getting past $10m for those struggling to follow along with my cryptic style of writing. This is a bug and a feature with SH Bullboards is the annonomity as it lowers the bar and prevents knowing who is who. There are better platforms that in now gravitate to. Lumber Twitter, for instance, is top notch and has very little annonomous chirping which I appreciate. They upside is the more candid takes about wealth and death that being reasonably annonomous can afford occuasoal posters like me.