RE:RE:RE:We are due for a break out@Moemoney42: You're absolutely right! I forgot to account for the costs associated with integrating the Kaybob asserts into CPG's overal portfolio. With that said, Q2 will provide some concrete results from the Kaybob assets as CPG took formal ownership of them on April 1. If those assets are producing at 30,000+ boe/d, I think there will be yet another reason to re-rate this stock.
Moemoney42 wrote: Agree completely with your analysis Highalpha.. one thing I somewhat have a difference with is the Q2 blowout earnings.. there will be one time costs associated with the closing of the Kaybob assets.. but Q3 will be fantastic..!! Lower hedges.. higher commodity prices.. etc.. etc.. highalpha1 wrote: @Bpultra: I will add that relative to other O&G stocks on the TSX, CPG is trading at a material discount (i.e., 2.0x 2020E EV/DACF versus the CURRENT sector average of 2.7x on the same ratio). This would mean that if CPG were to be trading at the average of the sector (not premium, just average), it's share price today should be approximately C$6.92.
CPG remains in the penalty box for the decisions of its past management. However, it also presents among the most compelling upside cases in the sector. RBC is predicting WTI price to average $75 during Q3 of this year. I am expecting that CPG will have a blowout Q2 earnings report (expected to be out July 29), which will clearly signal to the market just how much free cash flow the company is able to generate with the addition of the Kaybob assets. It should also provide some confidence to engage more substantially with shareholder return in the form of increased dividends. However, the real money, in my opionion, won't be made direcltly from any increased dividends but rather from capital gains through appreciation of the share price. I think that C$7-$8 is a fairly conservative price target for this company.
Bpultra wrote: How many times have we seen this trading pattern.... it moves up… only to be shorted back down… .. it consolidates for 4-5 trading days and then the shorts let it go… but sooner or later the insider are going to grow a set and buy some shares back and announce an increase in a div… you know any increase will bring back some of the heavy hitters.. and if we can stay above $5 which I think it may finally happen.. the funds can come back … margins are increased ..and like we have seen… fresh new buyers show up… so it’s been such a dog for so long that we may see a break out soon .. no reason this thing should still be under $6 other than insiders have no clue of what they are doing… they are going to be dragged m the gourmet kitchen kicking and screaming as the price of oil goes up and people with twice as much knowledge as them… start buying up CPG I just wish that a big bad wolf comes in and eats the chickens ….inside their safe chicken coup and takes this company in a new direction .. we are still dealing with insider mentality from our past leader… you know the guy from 40 bucks to 10… and these new guys 10 bucks to 1 .. a dog a dog .. cpg= Cents per Gallon… should be dollars .. crooks