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Ivanhoe Mines Ltd T.IVN

Alternate Symbol(s):  IVPAF

Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. is a Canada-based mining, development, and exploration company. The Company is focused on the mining, development and exploration of minerals and precious metals from its property interests located primarily in Africa. Its projects include The Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex, The Kipushi Project, The Platreef Project., and The Western Foreland Exploration Project. The Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex project stratiform copper deposit with adjacent prospective exploration areas within the Central African Copperbelt, approximately 25 kilometers (km) west of the town of Kolwezi and about 270 km west of the provincial capital of Lubumbashi. The Kipushi mine is adjacent to the town of Kipushi in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) approximately 30 km southwest of the provincial capital of Lubumbashi. The 21 licenses in the Western Foreland cover a combined area of 1,808 square kilometers to the north, south and west of the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex.


TSX:IVN - Post by User

Comment by Notgnuon Jun 20, 2021 9:31pm
299 Views
Post# 33418612

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Everything you ever wanted to know

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Everything you ever wanted to knowQuite clearly you care banana-gurl, so here is a review for your edification and electrification.

Recent specialist funds to BUY into NCU >>>

Fourth Sail:

  • 70 million shares, 19 + million warrants (approximated from corp. pres.)

  • https://www.fourthsailcap.com/our-work/

 

  • We spend much of our time analyzing the underlying value of cash flows of companies, which is typically where we try to capture upside. Across sectors, we strive to have deep industry knowledge, continuous contact with management teams, and a constant refinement of our assumptions and models.Regal Funds 

 

 

Regal Funds:

 

  • 31 million shares, 8.5 million warrants (approximated from corp. pres.)

  • https://www.regalfm.com/site/About-Us/approach
     

INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY
Through fundamental research Regal selects shares that it believes are undervalued and are expected to rise in price. In addition, the strategies utilise Regal’s expertise and systems to sell shares that it believes are overvalued and take advantage of a falling share price. This practice is known as ‘shorting’ and sets Regal apart from many other traditional investors as it creates more opportunity for alpha generation.

INVESTMENT PROCESS
The investment process for our funds focuses on a four-step stock selection process, which emphasises the bottom-up valuation of companies.


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Ivanhoe (IVN) KK mine versus Nevada Copper (NCU) on a future free cash flow comparison basis.


I use IVN KK mine as a comparison because it is low priced relative to future free cash-flow. Ivanhoe suffers a discount for being in the DRC. Both mines are 3 or 4 years until full production free cash flow. 


IVN only owns 40% of KK and KK is about 85% of IVN’s total value that includes 3 more properties.


I am now using a larger $1.2 billion future cost to build the NCU open pit.


To this I add $600 million EV to arrive at $1.8 billion future EV  for NCU versus $8.5 billion EV for IVN adjusted to the KK mine only.




Based on copper production about 4 years from now

IVN KK40%

owned DRC

 

NCU 100% owned USA

IVN 500,000 tonnes (copper study group avg est.) Adjusted to 40%`owned

440 million pounds

220 million (prob more now since video) + 70 million underground

290 million pounds

IVN av cost $1.15 all in cost 

$3.45 C/F

NCU av cost $2.00 all in

$2.60 C/F

Long term avg annual free cash flow using $4.60 copper

$1.52 billion

 

$750 million

IVN E/V adjusted to KK only

$8.5 billion

NCU EV adjusted to incl the open pit

$1.8 billion

IVN E/V divided by 2 to equalize free cash flow between IVN and NCU

$4.25 billion

NCU E/V is only 42% of IVN before discounting for DRC risk (see next line)

$1.8 billion

DRC 30 year risk adjustment is to say that the $4.25 b E/V would be $5.3 b if the KK mine were in the USA instead

$5.3 billion

NCU is currently trading at 33.9% the risk adjusted price of IVN

$1.8 billion

This means IVN is 3 times more expensive on future C/F basis 

     

What this comparison tells me is that Investors in IVN are willing to pay 3 times as much per share for future cash flow from the KK mine versus buying shares in NCU. 


There is no doubt that estimated share value and cash flow is always decoupled from what buyers are actually willing to pay.



=================================================


Benefits of increases in the copper price to a higher cost operation (NCU) versus a lower cost operation (IVN KK mine)



 

Ivanhoe

KK

Profit up since $2.50

copper 

 

Nevada Copper

Profit up since $2.50

copper 

All in cost and % mine profit

$1.15

   

$2.03

 
 

=======

======

 

======

=====

Cash-flow at $2.50

$1.35 / 117 %

0 %

 

$0.43 / 21 %

0 %

Cash-flow at $3.00

$1.85 / 161 %

37 %

 

$0.97 / 48 %

128 %

Cash-flow at $3.50

$2.35 / 204 %

74 %

 

$1.43 / 70 %

233 %

Cash-flow at $4.00

$2.85 / 248 %

112%

 

$1.97 / 97%

362 %

Cash-flow at $4.50

$3.35 / 291%

149%

 

$2.43 / 120 %

471 %

Cash-flow at $5.00

$3.85 / 335 %

186%

 

$2.97 / 146 %

595 %

           
           
           


********************************************************************




Based on copper production about 4 years from now

IVN KK40%

owned DRC

 

NCU 100% owned USA

IVN 500,000 tonnes (copper study group avg est.) Adjusted to 40%`owned

440 million pounds

220 million (prob more now since video) + 70 million underground

290 million pounds

IVN av cost $1.15 all in cost 

$3.45 C/F

NCU av cost $2.00 all in

$2.60 C/F

Long term avg annual free cash flow using $4.60 copper

$1.52 billion

 

$750 million

IVN E/V adjusted to KK only

$8.5 billion

NCU EV adjusted to incl the open pit

$1.8 billion

IVN E/V divided by 2 to equalize free cash flow between IVN and NCU

$4.25 billion

NCU E/V is only 42% of IVN before discounting for DRC risk (see next line)

$1.8 billion

DRC 30 year risk adjustment is to say that the $4.25 b E/V would be $5.3 b if the KK mine were in the USA instead

$5.3 billion

NCU is currently trading at 33.9% the risk adjusted price of IVN

$1.8 billion

To me this means IVN KK is 3 times more expensive on future C/F basis than NCU

     




========================================================


This table compares Ivanhoe KK mine at an $8.5 billion valuation (85% of IVN EV) with NCU at an $1.8 billion valuation


The NCU valuation is the addition of $600 million for the existinting EV plus $1.2 billion to finance and build the 70,000 tpd open pit.


The copper per year production figures represent production in or around 2024 to 2025 for both mines.


These number are presented as though there is zero risk discount applied to the IVN KK mine and applying a 20% or 30% discount would add yet more relative valuation to NCU at all cash flow multiples and all copper prices from $3.00 and up


At $2.00 copper NCU is bankrupt in this model and IVN KK is still okay.



Free cash flow at:

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

IVN KK mine


 $1.15 all in cost, 480 m pounds per year (according to TA1)

$408m

$888m

$1.37b

$1.85b

$2.3b

$2.8b

$3.3b

3.77b

                 

NCU underground plus open pit


$2.00 all in cost cost, 290 m

pounds per year

$0.00

$290m

$580m

$870m

$1.16b

$1.45b

$1.74b

$2.03b

                 

Free cash flow at $9.00 copper,  divided by EV

10 X

Divide by EV

15 X

Divide by EV

20 X

Divide by EV

25X

Divide by EV

IVN KK

$37.7b

$4.44

$56.5b

$6.65

$75.4b

$8.87

$94.3b

$11.08

NCU 

$20.3b

$11.28

$30.4b

$16.88

$40.6b

$22.55

$50.8

$28.2

                 

Free cash flow at $7.00 copper,  divided by EV

10 X

Divide by EV

15 X

Divide by EV

20 X

Divide by EV

25X

Divide by EV

IVN KK

$28.0b

$3.29

$42.0b

$4.94

$56.0b

$6.59

$70.0b

$8.24

NCU 

$14.5b

$8.05

$22.7b

$12.61

$29.0b

$16.11

$50.8

$20.66



Free cash flow at $5.00 copper,  divided by EV

10 X

Divide by EV

15 X

Divide by EV

20 X

Divide by EV

25X

Divide by EV

IVN KK

$18.5b

$2.17

$27.8b

$3.27

$37.0b

$4.35

$46.3b

$5.45

NCU 

$8.7b

$4.83

$13.1b

$7.27

$17.4b

$9.67

$21.8b

$12.11


Free cash flow at $3.00 copper,  divided by EV

10 X

Divide by EV

15 X

Divide by EV

20 X

Divide by EV

25X

Divide by EV

IVN KK

$8.9b

$1.05

$13.4b

$1.58

$17.8b

$2.09

$22.3b

$2.62

NCU 

$2.9b

$1.61

$4.4b

$2.44

$5.8b

$3.22

$7.3

$4.05


Free cash flow at $2.00 copper,  divided by EV

10 X

Divide by EV

15 X

Divide by EV

20 X

Divide by EV

25X

Divide by EV

IVN KK

$4.8b

$0.56

$7.2b

$0.84

$9.6b

$1.12

$12b

$1.40

NCU 

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0

$0



===========================================================


NCU compared to IVN on an E/V basis:


Current IVN to NCU >>> Enterprise value Ratio >>>

At present you would need to own over 15 entire USA NCU mines to equal Ivanhoe's DRC properties

NCU E/V = under        $600 million

IVN E/V = about     $10,000 million

15 X $600 million =  $9,000 million

=====================================================

NCU timing is perfect for new investors


New mine build-out delays mean that copper sales from the relatively high grade new underground mine are hitting the market at what appears to be decades long high copper prices.


In a few short weeks we will be at an initial 3,000 tons per day and, assuming the early ore is blended with lower grade development ore (essentially from tunnelling in) we will probably be running at 1.5% copper and then 2% soon after.


5,000 tons per day from underground will happen in mid q4 but beginning in q2, after dike grouting is completed, we will already be at 3,000 tons per day according to CEO Mike Ciricillo.


So 3,000 tons X 2,000 pounds X 30 days per month X 1.5% copper X 90% recovery equals 2,400,000 pounds of copper per month.


2,400,000 minus 700,000 hedged pounds equals 1,700,000 pounds unhedged.


1,700,000 x $2.81 (after deducting $1.86 all in cost from $4.67 copper) equals $4,777,000 plus about $750,000 from the profit on the hedged copper equals $5,500,000 per month already


At over $5,000,000 per month soon (July 2021) there are no more wolves at the door. The bills and interest are rapidly paid off as this cash flows in


In the fall this cash flow doubles or triples depending on copper prices. After that the company (according to the last presentation) may  ramp up the underground to an even higher volume of 6.000 to 6,500 tpd. It was specified at 5,000 tpd but built to accommodate much more. (Talk to Rich about this... I have.)


With the resumption of drilling (the programs ended a few years ago when cash dried up during both low copper prices and expensive bills for the underground and mill construction) the underground and open pit resources will increase.



=======================================================


In recent months most copper miners have rallied 2 X to 5 X share price return due to long-term copper prices and outlook...


NCU has only just begun to price in the fact of not going bankrupt. 

NCU is not yet rated as a "producer," but rather just as a "developer."

NCU is a "producer" now but the share price has yet to catch up.


New interview with CEO Mike Ciricillo

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIEmMHVZefA

 

  =======================================================


2021 start up cash-flow pro-forma (underground only)


2nd quarter: April, May, June: 


Average blended grade of 1.3% copper

Average mining and milling rate 1500 tpd


Average $4.50 copper

Hedge portion of 2.1 m pounds 


Production above the hedge (1500 tpd X 1.5% copper X 90 days X 2000 pounds per ton X 90% recovery = 3.6 m pounds, minus hedged amount = 1.5 million pounds 

1.5 m pounds is below the hedge so this could mean <negative $2 million> + (negative $6 million q1 hedge> = <negative $8 million>

 


3rd quarter: July, Aug, Sept: 


Blended grade of 1.6%, 3,000 tpd, $4.20 copper, remaining hedge of 1,000,000 pounds 


Production above the hedge (3000 tpd X 1.7% copper X 90 days X 2000 p per ton X 90% recovery = 8 m pounds, minus the hedge = 7 million pounds 


7m X $2.34 per pound (after all in cost) = $16 million, plus about $1 million from the hedge = $17 million free cash-flow


 

4th quarter: Oct, Nov, Dec:


Grade 1.9%, 5,000 tpd, no more hedge, $4.50 copper

5000 X 1.9% copper X 90 days X 90% recovery = 15.4 m pounds copper


15.4 m X $2.64 per pound = $40 m free cash-flow



2021 < q2 > + q3 + q4 total = $49 million free cash-flow



2022 (using $4.70 copper, underground only) =  $184,000,000  free cash-flow.



===========================================================

 


Underground alone, after ramp up ($4.70 copper:)


65 million pounds per year x $2.84 ($4.70 - $1.86 = $2.84)


Free cash-flow of about $184 million USD per year at a conservative, low 5 X cash-flow multiple = $923 million, divided by 1.8 billion shares = $0.51 USD = $0.62 CAD


OPEN PIT valued as not yet developed ($4.70 copper:)



IRR (7.5% discounted) of 44% (extrapolated from NCU's Oct 2020 presentation)

NPV of $2.35 b/ 1.8 b shares = $1.30 (then discounted 75% by me) =  $0.33 USD = $0.40 CAD


Total share price:$0.62 + $0.40  = $1.02 CAD 



=============================================================


Underground mine after ramp up plus future open pit:


At $4.50 copper, 2.3 billion fully diluted shares and 70,000 TPD open pit:


 70,000 tpd X .005 copper equivalent X 88% recovery X 2000 pounds per ton X 365 days per year = 225 million pounds plus 65 million pounds from underground = 290 million pounds X ~ $2.50 profit = $725,000,000 free cash-flow per year.


 $0.725 billion p/year cash flow X5 multiple = $3.63 billion / 2.3 billion shares = $1.58 USD p/s


 $0.725 billion p/year cash flow X6 multiple = $4.35 billion / 2.3 billion shares = $1.89 USD p/s


 $0.725 billion p/year cash flow X7 multiple = $5.08 billion / 2.3 billion shares = $2.21 USD p/s


 $0.725 billion p/year cash flow X8 multiple = $5.80 billion / 2.3 billion shares = $2.52 USD p/s


 $0.725 billion p/year cash flow X9 multiple = $6.53 billion / 2.3 billion shares = $2.84 USD p/s


 $0.725 billion p/year cash flow X10multiple =$7.25 billion / 2.3 billion shares = $3.15 USD p/s 


 $1.96 CAD to $3.91 CAD per share

 


Reasons to own NCU: 


Nevada, USA = one constitution for over 200 years vs DRC = 6 in 60 years


Future open pits have gold and silver credits not pre sold in any stream deal


Future open pits are already permitted to allow 70,000 tpd production


A possible 100,000 tpd mine was recently spoken about by the CEO


Copper has run way beyond the $3.20 price assumptions in the NI-43-101 


The new mill is successfully ramping up to 5000 tpd capacity (prob ~50% now)


Full copper production 3rd or 4th quarter 2021


Minimal hedges roll off soon


Covid uncertainty all but gone now with vaccines out


No insider selling for 10 yrs despite past issues


Banks lending at reasonable rates 


Highly experienced CEO with 3,500,000 share rights which align him with us. 


A mining friendly jurisdiction with plenty of experienced labour availablity


A share consolidation of 10:1 to be announced June 30 2021 = more fund buying


Expansion drilling underway, so decades more resources will be added


 

Potential risks include:

 


Problems with the mine plan leading to more cost

Copper price dropping a lot

Mine accidents

Another Covid shut down



==================================================

 


Interpretation of the 2020 share price collapse:

 


Covid hit and the mine was shut down. It was bad timing in terms of funds to get production up and running. Cash was not there and it looked like another dilution was to happen


Selling came in with very little buying support. Then the situation changed for the better yet investors were scared.

 

==========================================================

 


Insider average share cost:


 


Pala / Iorich  ~40 % owner           > $0.51 (calculated as of January financing)


NCU director Nutter                     > $0.32 (calculated as of Dec 2020)


NCU director Albanese                > $ 0.41 


NCU director Brown                     > $0.31


NCU chairman Gill                       > $0.21


NCU senior VP Joseph                > $.32


NCU director Cochrane                > $0.67


 


======================================================


 


NCU: Some history on the underground portion: 


Throughout 2019 copper prices declined about $0.75 per pound, from ~$3.00 to ~ $2.25 (March of 2020) This was the first major hit to the share price. The NI 43-101 assumed an average price of $3.00.


Quote: "Consensus prices per the 2019 NI 43-101 Tech Report : US$2.83 – 3.20 lb Cu"


Covid shut the mine down just when start up production was about to occur. Copper ~$2.25 at the time. NCU dropped to $0.24


The share price continued to decline and only in June 2020 did it have a small pop back to the $0.20 area, presumably because copper went to ~$2.75 thus making the mine viable again (all in cost of $1.89 underground, leaving $0.86 per pound net profit.)


Cash was needed to get to positive cash-flow and support debt obligations thus the now infamous dilution and refinancing at a about net $0.14


Shareholders bailed on mass with the tax loss season and covid doom in the air, leaving the share price to hit 2020 lows of ~$0.07 to $0.10


Since then both the copper price and importantly, the outlook for copper, have improved markedly. This affects everything. NCU is affected more than most because going from almost bankrupt, to having a very profitable outlook, creates a larger leverage effect than going from profitable to more profitable (as is the case with other low hedged, mid sized copper mines

Since the life saving July 2020 financing NCU's marginal profit is now 250% of what it was then ($2.14 vs $0.86 p/pound) Note: the $2.14 today is based on $4.00 copper, minus $1.86 AISC


During the time copper prices went up the mine build progressed amazingly well. The mill was tested to run great at 'nameplate' of 5000 TPD and the underground hoisting and ore crushing have successfully been commissioned... a shout out to the new CEO and the NCU team.


NCU's hedging is relatively small and applies to only the first 6 months of 2021 leaving the vast majority of the copper open to the new higher copper prices.

 

The recent financing converted another big piece of debt to equity so the balance sheet is in great shape.


Despite the troubles in the past there has been no insider selling for 10 years and insiders hold a lot of stock cumulatively, with Pala / Iorich holding about 40% at an average price that is greater than $0.51.



========================================================

 


Additional 83 million tons of ore likely available underground.

 

More drilling will be done to confirm the size and grade of this ore body and it may easily increase and is very economical at $4.00 copper price.


The current "measured and indicated" category is 54 million tons at 1.39% copper and the "Inferred" is 29 million tons at 1.09% copper. (these are in addition to the 13 years [24 million tons] of 1.6% that we are about to start mining.)


Taken together there is another approximately 60 million tons of about 1.2% copper in the measured / indicated category (also subject to more drilling expansion) to provide an additional 27 years of mill feed using 6000 tons per day.


The math is: 60 million ton / 6,000 tpd / 365 days a year = 27 years.


The grade is (about) 1.2% copper average


So, 6000 tpd X 365 days per year x .012 grade X .9 recovery X 2000 p per ton = 47 m pounds of copper per year for additional 27 years above the first 13 years.


At $4.70 copper ($2.84 p pound free cash-flow) X 47 m pounds = $133 m per year underground

Total additional = 27 more years of $133 m US per year, beyond the first 13 years of $184 million USD per year 

 


 

========================================================

 


Corporate presentations:


https://nevadacopper.com/site/assets/files/4190/ncu_october_2020_final.pdf

 

https://nevadacopper.com/site/assets/files/4209/2021-03-ncu-cp.pdf 


Robert Pavich Video (last 10 minutes is best)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hk_WhFu7FlA&feature=emb_logo

 

New video feature CEO Mike C.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIEmMHVZefA 

 

Article:


https://provenandprobable.com/copper-corrects-from-an-all-time-high-nevada-copper-offers-value-and-a-bullish-trend/


 ==================================================================


 Summary of key NCU news releases:


 

2013, Sept 9: (copper~$3.30) 

>>>Final permit for underground mine build, plus loan financing.   


2013, Nov 14: (copper~$3.20) 

>>>Stand alone open pit feasibility study filed using $2.75 copper


2014, Dec 15: (copper~$2.75) 

>>>Land bill passed by Senate and House of Reps

 

2015, May 28: (copper~$2.45) 

>>>Feasibility results. Mine life increased by 5 years.

>>>A description of economic results with three base case scenarios for copper. 


2015, June 1 - July 15: (copper~$2.25) 

>>>Three more positive drill result releases, including 400’ of 1% copper

 

2015, Aug 17: (copper~$2.25) 

>>>Full permit for open pit is obtained


2015, Aug 21: (copper~$2.25) 

>>>BLM conveys 10,000 acres of land to NCU.

 

2015, Sept 10 & Nov 3: (copper~$2.20) 

>>>Two more sets of positive drill results


2016, June 9: (copper~$2.15) $4.8 million raised at $0.60. 

>>>Total shares NCU shares outstanding = 88 million


2017, May 23: (copper~$2.55)

>>>Pala P.P. 10% premium to the market = $0.66 for 3.7 million shares.

>>>Total NCU shares outstanding = 93 million 


2017, Dec 17 and 2018, Jan 12: (copper~$3.20) 

>>>Construction financing and debt restructuring


2018, Feb 26: (copper~$3.20)

>>>Restart of underground mine construction after the raising of more funds. 


2018, March 5: (copper~$3.10) 

>>>$128 million from Pala for an additional 256 million shares. $0.50 each

 

2018, May 15: (copper~$3.05) 

>>>Open pit extension drill results including 42 metres of 2% copper  


2018, July 17: (copper~$2.75)

>>>Additional equity financing. $108 million, $0.60 per share; 

>>>Total NCU shares outstanding = 660 million


2018, Sept 6: (copper~$2.60) 

>>>$70 million received in exchange for (underground only) Au & Ag metal stream.


2018, Sept 10: (copper~$2.65) 

>>>PEA received for the open pit using $3.20 long term copper. 


2018, Nov 13: (copper~$2.75) 

>>>Announcement to update technical report to include new info and PEA


2019, Feb 22: (copper~$2.75)

>>>Announcement of 5,700 additional acres staked for exploration, thereby expanding the Pumpkin Hollow property by 32%


2019, April 16: (copper~$2.90) 

>>>New open pit PFS study published with updated numbers ($3.20 long term copper price is used)


2019, May 16: (copper~$2.70) 

>>>$40 million combined private placement and public share sale $.040


2019, Dec 16: (copper~$2.80) 

>>>Copper production commenced and ramp up to full 5000 tpd expected by mid 2020. 

>>>65 m pounds p/ye projected from underground. Cost = $1.86 (all in sustaining cost)


2019, Dec 17: (copper~$2.80)

>>>Pala announces buying shares in the public market at $0.29 per share 

>>>Pala’s total of the financing =273 million shares, ~ 36% of shares outstanding.

>>>New float is roughly 758 million shares


2020, April 6: (copper~$2.25)

>>>Covid necessitates a shutdown of the newly completed mill 

>>>Underground work continues at a reduced pace


2020, July 31: (copper~$2.85)

>>>Equity sale completed. 667 million shares including the over-allotment 

>>>This raises $100 million to pay down debt and cover expenses. 

>>>New share price is about $0.14 after backing out about $0.02 per warrant attached.


2020, Aug 24: (copper~$2.95)

>>>Production is restarted

>>>Commissioning of hoist, vent shaft and underground crushing continues


2020, Oct 15: (copper~$3.05)

>>>Mike Ciricillo is brought on board as CEO. Mike “...was previously the Head of Copper Industrial Operations for Glencore Plc, where he oversaw Glencore’s worldwide copper assets…”


2021, Jan 29: (copper~$3.55)

>>>Equity financing; 230 million shares issued at $0.16 for proceeds of $38 million. 

>>>Pala takes down an additional 80 million shares as a part of a debt to equity trade. 

>>>New share total = 1.7 billion. Warrants will bring in about $100m


2021, March 18: (copper~$4.05);

>>>Some 5% ore is encountered in ‘development’ area on route to the new stopes

>>>Expect “grade increases” in combining weeks as stopes are accessed

>>>Hoist is tested to run at 5,000 TPD matching the tested mill capacity

>>>Electrical upgrades mostly completed (due to change in first stope to mine)


2021, April 21: (copper ~ $4.25):

>>>We are a few days away from the first stope to start extracting 2.2% copper

>>>Ventilation upgrades are progressing well

>>>Batch production is running very well at intermittent bursts of 4,700 tpd as development (and soon) new stope ore is being mined.

 

2021, May 17 (copper ~$4.70)

>>>Mike announces we will be at about 3,000 tpd by the end of q2 (June 30)

>>>Progress slowed a little as cautious progress is made through water bearing dike

>>>Covid has slowed the delivery of the Large surface fans so 5,000 tpd mid q4




======================================================= 

 


Another way to look at it

 

Work backwards from q4 full 5000 tpd:


Mid Q4 = full 5000 tons per day which at $4.50 copper is $160 million /yr free cash-flow.

 

$160 million X 6.3  multiple = $1 billion divided by 1.8 billion shares = $0.55 p/s

add value for a permitted open pit which is an easy $0.25 to $0.40 to me

 

Discount back to today, less than 6 months from 5,000 tpd

 

Buying today at 30 cents would be a 150 %, 6 month return.


============================================================

 


Barrick CEO on copper as a strategic metal for the portfolio

 


https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/video/barrick-gold-ceo-says-copper-is-a-fantastic-strategic-asset~1907821



Long term copper supply / demand articles:


https://aheadoftheherd.com/copper-con/


https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2021-05-19/Running-on-MT-peak-copper.html


https://www.mining.com/new-bull-chart-for-30000-copper-price-porphyries-nearly-mined-out/


LoznSniff wrote:
Notgnu wrote:
LoznSniff wrote: You are a sick little puppy Nutella.

Maybe true, but I now have accumulated almost $2,000 worth of shares... not bad for investing my paper-route money.

N


Loz

 

No one cares sick puppy.


Loz


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