RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Knight / Antibe ... for those who don't know ...MrMugsy wrote: Snowballgrowth wrote: MrMugsy wrote: Yes - you could have looked at it (and similar) as a lottery ticket ... but with extras.
1. usually a loan component that pays double digit returns.
2. licensed geographies as a bonus.
3. shares as a hedge against future problems - which are often cashed out by Knight.
4. backstopped by assets to cover some costs, should the company be unable to fulfill the requirements of the agreement.
Don't forget though ... this partnership between ATE and GUD goes back a long way.
Goodman was on their board and knows their potential intimately.
Phase 2A/2B success takes ATE out of lottery ticket realm and moves it into a very reasonable chance for success. ATE has struck a deal in China (eyebrow lifting $100M plus double digit royalties) and they are now in the cofidential part of negotiations with Big Pharma for the first drug in the largest markets.
You need to have a few of these under your belt as they can really shape your future in ROW. You become an immediate ROW partner with a future acquirer of the small pharma.
All in my opinion.
Interesting but I don't buy lottery ticket with 7-10 years horizon. We want deals with existing sales or legacy assets with high margins and return on capital invested !
If you own shares in GUD then you have ownership in ATE's future.
Not sure what to tell you.
Don't look at it like a lottery then - that solves everything.
Hahaha !
Yes, I don't understand this - people are disappointed because there are bonus elements within GUD's dealmaking? GUD's management will be focused on "deals with existing sales or legacy assets with... etc." but there's nothing wrong with, for instance, having outcomes with low probability but high value if they take place...
on top of everything else.
Goodman doesn't participate in "lotteries," obviously. I don't put my money into lottery tickets either. But if someone gives me a lottery ticket for free, I'll sure take it. In fact, even lottery tickets are always worth
something, even though their initial sale price has significant negative EV.