Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Where things are at

[qwerty22]

Here is the preclinical work for Padcev.
https://cancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/76/10/3003.long

One thing they did really nicely is a comprehensive screening of tumour material (2400 samples) to nailed down the frequency of Nectin in tumour. They paired this with a comprehensive look at expression levels in healthy tissues to identify potential sites of off-target toxicities and then took a close look at those sites in their animal tox studies. I don't think thtx have gone quite so deep into the same things, well not publically. There has been a few groups screen for Sortilin in various tumour but nothing comprehensive, thtx could rewrite some of the science by repeating what was done here with Nectin.

Some of it's dates/numbers
It reported Ph1 in 2016 (59 patients)
It got approved in Dec 2019 (152 patient Ph3 in bladder cancer)
And 2020 sales by Seagen hit $212 mil (half of which goes to Astelles)

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210211005849/en/Seagen-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2020-Financial-Results

qwerty22 wrote:

Don't think of yourself as too inferior to the experts. I don't think they have a much better grasp on the chances of success than this board. We might not get it right immediately but the open nature of the discussion eventually gets us there, maybe after going down a few blind alleys.

I said earlier that many ADCs are going after well known targets. One that didn't was Padcev. At the time of it's preclinical from what I've read the role of Nectin-4 in cancer hadn't been particularly well understood. There was no MOA associated with it, no drugs targeting it. The original developers of Padcev came to it thru large screening studies that showed its expression in 50% of tumours. The ADC the constructed based on a pre-existing humanized Nectin-4 antibody showed similar preclinical data to th1902. They powered ahead with a phase 1 in bladder cancer that showed a 60% expression level. They went after just one cancer, not basket, in Ph1 so they were able to show a good ORR from 59 patients. They did registration trial and got approval in late 2019. Interestingly even though Nectin only appears in 60% of bladder tumour they don't have to do any prescreening before treatment, looks like they get a 44% ORR in bladder cancer even though on 60% supposedly express Nectin. My guess is FDA are happy to treat all and capture all possible responders rather than try screening and potential set the cutoff too high and have some who might benefit be excluded from treatment.

Nobody can really say how well Sortilin/th1902 would match that story, even the experts, but to me it has a lot in common with THTX's program. A good place to look if you want to see how success might look.

 

palinc2000 wrote:

 

I am not referring to investors at large...I am referring to some investors with a deep knowledge in oncology whom I presume have been contacted ...I think they know more than anyone here .... I think if they bite that increases the odds of success ....does not guarantee but better odds
I am not making a guess on results .... nobody can

 

Wino115 wrote: I don't think the odds of success go down because investors aren't bidding up the share price. That implies someone has inside information, which the tight lips of THTX have not budged on before. I'm not sure I agree with your logic there on that one. Science determines the odds.

If you're looking for KOL-type affirmation I would say FDA fast track (after all, they see every drug in development, have expertise, and picked TH1902 to fast track on just pre-clinical data), MD Anderson leading the trial, LSA choosing to work with THTX (we heard LSA has turned some firms down). The other KOLs are all the papers written about sortilin overexpression and the Gothenburg guys getting two VCs to back their early stage approach to use sortilin to fight TNBC in a different way.


 

 

palinc2000 wrote: I must admit that I will be  surprised  if we dont  soon see a a surge in the stock price .
Indeed Securities rules are quite strict when it comes to disclosing material information and you cannot pick and chose who gets access to such info ,
It was and still is my belief that the webminar was just an excuse for the company to be able to  share info a new group of investors (institutinal or otherwise) familier and having expertise in oncology,,,,,So they went fishing and it appears that they have not yet caught one or more big fish.

I dont think this has anything to do with a credibility issue of the past since Paul does not carry that burden,
It is my  sincere belief that if those new prospective investors feel that there is a sound basis for the science that they will jump in before any efficacy results are released,Of course in MOST if not ALL clinical trials there are risks but the big money is made by those who get in before the good news ,
Waiting for results would be akin to making a wager in horse racing when the winning horse is within a few feet from the Finish line,,,,That would never translate to big winnings,
So how do science experts   OUTSIDE  Thera view the science,,BTW Beliveau in my mind is not a true KOL for this platform ,,,,
To summarize the odds of success in Phase 1 would be greater if experts weighed in by taken a substantial position in the stock,,,,BEFORE  any results .....I am sure that there are ongoing discussions with those investors and their representatives so I am very eager to see if the Company can be convincing enough,,,,It has been one week since the webniar so maybe another couple of weeks to go ,,,,,,IF not it does not mean Phase 1 will not be successful but IMO the odds are against us,