RE:RE:Speculating about the next financingYou have to know the phase 1a data first before you can start making some guesses at that. And you would not want to sell before you have that data in hand. So, it is too early to put a price on it.
There are not many times in your investing life where you have an option on something that could be huge like TH-1902. So, you don't want to sell early when you do. The wait for the data will likely be agonizing, and it may not confirm our hopes, but turning away from it at this point when the stars seems to be aligning for us would be foolish.
Now, I am presuming that no one is going to make a $30 share offer tomorrow, as that would be somethng you would need to consider. But it also is not going to happen as no buyer is going to make an offer like that without the data. Indeed, an offfer like that would require multiple bidders bidding against one another. And such a scenario is not going to happen until there is data.
I was reading about Immunomedics buyout yesterday. It came after approval of Trodelvy, not before. There appeared to be only two bidders (maybe three) and only GILD was willing to pay really, really big money to acquire it. The negotiations to buy it started and ended pretty quickly. If TH-1902 shows similiar promise, I imagine a similiar set of circumstances will unfold. Big pharma will wake up one day and realize they need TH-1902 and in a short time a deal will be done at an extraordinary price to TH shareholders but at what is still a very affordable number for the acquirer. GILD was willing to pay the big price for Immunomedics because they saw many applications beyond the original TNBC drug. Sound familiar?
But, nothing is going to happen until TH-1902 proves itself out with hard data. Very good phase 1a data should get people to start taking notice and investors start piling in hoping that TH is another Immunomedics. But big pharma will almost certainly want to see phase 1b data before committing large sums of money to it.
So, we have a very interesting option in TH-1902 that could be worth a huge amount of money or expire worthless. Things look very interesting at the moment but it is worth remembering this is a trailblazing phase I trial and there may well be some blind corners that have to be turned ahead. As the recently deceased Donald Rumsfield is famous for saying, it is the unknown unknowns that can be most problematic. But I think we are already past the biggest unknown in that the drug seems to be safe in humans. Now, it is all about efficacy and whether those mice in the pre-clinical trials sacrificed their lives for a greater cause or if it was all for naught.
Let's hope the company drops some hints about how the trial is progressing on 7/14.
longterm56 wrote: SPCEO1 wrote:
There is a good c hance somme big pharma commpany makes us shareholders an offer we can't refuse under that scenario as well, making the issue of a financing moot.
Would you care to share what "an offer we can't refuse" would be? What is your minimum buy-out price for which you would vote affirmative?
Thanks -
-LT
SPCEO1 wrote: In the end, I think everything depends on the efficacy results for TH-1902. If they are bad, the financing options are not very good and the convertibles chances of needing to be paid off in cash are very high (since the market is showing no appreciation for NASH plays and may not do so anytime before MDGL reports its phase III results in late 2022). If TH-1902's efficacy results are very good, the stock price shoud soar, the convertible will almost certainly convert and potentially large sums of cash shoould be pouring in from a variety of pharma partners. There is a good c hance somme big pharma commpany makes us shareholders an offer we can't refuse under that scenario as well, making the issue of a financing moot. If TH-1902's efficacy results are just good, and not very good, it is a lot more difficult to know exactly how things will play out on the financing front as it will depend on the exact nature of the results. But if new cash needs to be raised, because it is unclear where things might go based on those just "good" results, or how fast everything about TH-1902 might move forward under those circumstances, then I have to believe the chances of a new capital raise in early 2022 is likely.
So, to say we should all be very interested in the efficacy of TH-1902 is a huge understatement. Whatever those results are is going to make a huge difference in the outcome for all of us, particularly with regard to the need for and terms of any future financing.
For the moment, we have lots of small reasons for optimism that those efficacy results will be very good. Here are some of those small reasons (I say small because only the actual data, which is yet to come, matters in the end):
1.) FDA gave TH-1902 a Fast Track designation while still in the pre-clinical phase - very unusual. It tells us that people with deep knowledge of cancer drugs think this could be a special drug (or drug platform to be more precise).
2.) Soleus - an institutional investor thought to have a level of expertise in this area far exceeding most other investors, participated (likely instigated actually) in the OO and THTX apparently is now the second largest holding in their portfolio. Like the FDA, a group with deep knowledge in cancer drugs clearly thinks TH-1902 has a very good chance of becoming a winning drug platform.
3.) THTX is adding staff rapidly indicating they have a high level of confidence about the future, and that is most likely tied to their understanding of their cancer prospects. Since they are in a position to have a better understanding than anyone else, that is a favorable sign.
4.) During the cancer webinar, there really were no odd concerns raised about the drug that we needed to be worrying about. In many drug trials, there are such concerns. They are often overcome but they keep investors worried right up to approval (safety concerns typically). So far, we have no such concerns, although it remains pretty early in the testing process for TH-1902 and some may yet arise.
5.) The pre-clnical work on mice and rats was unusually impressive. The drug seems to work wherever the sortilin receptor is overexpressed. It has to translate into humans but with the way the company is acting by hiring pre-clinical researchers and partnership experts, one can presume that whatever they have seen up to this point in the early phase I trial is only encouraging TH management about the prospects of Th-1902.