Manulife Financial Corp T.MFC

Alternate Symbol(s): MFC | MNQFF | T.MFC.PR.B | MNUFF | T.MFC.PR.C | T.MFC.PR.F | T.MFC.PR.I | T.MFC.PR.J | T.MFC.PR.K | T.MFC.PR.L | T.MFC.PR.M | MNLCF | T.MFC.PR.N | T.MFC.PR.P | T.MFC.PR.Q

Financial Services Insurance - Diversified

Manulife Financial Corporation is a Canada-based international financial services provider. The Company provides financial advice and insurance, operating as Manulife across Canada, Asia, and Europe, and primarily as John Hancock in the United States. Its segments include Wealth and asset management businesses, Insurance and annuity products, and Corporate and Other segment. Wealth and asset management businesses branded as Manulife Investment Management, provide investment advice and solutions to retirement, retail, and institutional clients. Insurance and annuity products include a variety of individual life insurance, individual and group long-term care insurance and guaranteed and partially guaranteed annuity products. Products are distributed through multiple distribution channels, including insurance agents, brokers, banks, financial planners and direct marketing. Corporate and Other segment comprise the investment performance of assets backing capital.

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Manulife Financial Corp > TD Notes

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Post by retiredcfon Jul 13, 2021 10:37am

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Post# 33535518

TD Notes

Life Insurance Q2/21 Outlook

Unlike Q1/21, We Expect Investors to Focus on Business Momentum LICAT, Charges & Reserves Should Not Dominate the Discussion

Canada's life insurance companies are scheduled to report Q2/21 results on July 29 (iA Financial [IAG-T]), August 3 (Great-West Lifeco [GWO-T]), and August 4 (Manulife Financial [MFC-T] and Sun Life Financial [SLF-T]). Our estimates call for a reasonably good Q2/21 for the Canadian insurers, with adjusted (base/ core/underlying) EPS up 11% y/y against good Q2/20 results. Last quarter was characterized by hits to LICAT and book value, as well as heightened earnings volatility associated with the macro factors. In contrast, we expect Q2/21 to look and feel more like the second half of 2020, when the insurers reported strong wealth management results, improving insurance sales, and stable-to-improving LICAT ratios. If we have this right, the insurers should fare reasonably well coming out of Q2/21 reporting. Reflecting relative valuation and solid new business momentum, we expect MFC and IAG to gain ground this earnings season.

Manulife (ACTION LIST BUY): On a core basis, we forecast EPS of $0.77 versus $0.78 in the previous year and $0.82 in the previous quarter. We expect core earnings to be down 1% y/y against a strong year-ago quarter, which included very good policyholder experience and seed capital gains reported in earnings on surplus. In contrast, we expect Q2/21 to include core investment gains of $100mm after tax (~$130mm pre-tax) and very strong new business gains, particularly in Asia. We also forecast 21% y/y earnings growth from the wealth management segment. We believe that the stock's performance is very much leveraged to what drives results in any given quarter. Quarters characterized by accounting/reserve noise generally overwhelm MFC's solid fundamental performance. Unlike Q1/21, in Q2/21, we expect the market to focus on momentum in Asian insurance and wealth management rather than unusual accounting gains/losses driven by macro factors.