RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Q2 - Before Market - August 16.the last time I crunched the numbers, I left out the hedges
WTI sensitivity $1 = 17 million. 2021 hedge =22%, so $1= $13.26 million after hedgeing
assume $12 over base, $159.12 milliion for 2021; and $204 million for 2022 (no hedge)
base = $350 million + 159.12
so WTI=
$509.12 million in 2021,
$554 million in 2022
then there is gas on top of that
euro gas sensitivity is $7 million per .25 for increase.
TTF base = $7.54, spot = $11.72. about $60 million unhedged;
$16.8 million hedged for 2021
$39 million hedged for 2022
NA gas
base = $2.87 AECO; spot = $3.153
sensitivity is .$25 = $13.1 million unhedged;
= $14.41 million unhedged, or
2021 hedged upside= $7 million
2022 hedged = $9.3 million
2021 = $350 milion base + WTI $159.12 + Euro $16.8 + NA $7= $532.92 million FCF
2022= $350 million base + WTI $204 + Euro $39 + NA $9.3= $602 million FCF
these are all really really roughed out numbers based on current prices which can swing pretty wildly. My margin of error due to incompetence is huge, so wait for someone like Oldnagger to review this.