RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Technicals...metalhead666 wrote: I'll give you one better....Science is the best model of reality humans have ever embraced. Science creates models which make predictions. If the predictions hold then science creates a theory which is the best explanation of a given phenomenon.
T/A is not science. It is not empirical and there are no t/a theories.
Science can test a hypothesis to see if it holds and then construct a model which CAN make future predictions. Investing is all about making future predictions but it is not a science although science can be a tool to up your odds of success.
Science models demographics and baring some major event those predictions are very accurate. Science cannot model "sentiment" either individually or collectively as those are shaped by quantifiable means. While it might be known what the weather will be in 5 days and that I don't like rainy days it cannot model what my dreams might be, how my stomach feels, whether I'll have Covid or if my dog will die...all of which will alter my "sentiment" "Sentiment" is not demographics. It is entirely unpredictable. Monday the "sentiment" was end of days and the Dow fell 1000 points...by today that was a meaningless blip.
You cannot tell me what my "sentiment" is going to be next Wed even if you perfectly guaged it today or last year. My sentiment is shaped by an infinite amount of variables from the weather to how I slept etc You cannot construct a model for these variables. If you can't do it for one individual you certainly cannot model it for a group. You also cannot model "patterns" given that algorithmic trading dominates the markets...you cannot know what they know, do or plan to do. They have no "sentiment" at all and if you cannot factor this huge variable into your t/a model then your t/a model is 100% useless.
Science tells us that human caused climate change is a fact. That fact will alter human behavior. I can use that fact to make better investment decisions. Science cannot tell you what Powell will say next Wed. One can make intelligent investments based on scientific facts but he cannot make them based upon what "pattern" a chart from 1985 showed. Charts do not predict they demonstrate what was. Science doesn't model "sentiment" as it's not a quantifiable thing. You can articulate what it "was" but you cannot know what it will be.
Therefore...There is no value whatsoever in any t/a voodoo ever put forward by know nothings who do no critcal thinking of their own. none. zero. nada.
I enjoyed reading this.
May I add, you can't push a rope. TKO will be higher one day but huffing a puffing will have no effect on the timetable.