A simple take on SugarBudInfo taken from Q1 2021 MD&A
Max production: 9,923kg - 11,674kg
Average selling price: $6.59 (quarter prior was $6.54)
Gross profit margin 24% (an increase of 4% from prior quarter)
Dried flower, pre-rolls on cannmart, 1 510 thread cartridge (non-solvent) Cannmart and select MB dispesaries and a live resin (Hash) via non-solvent cold press in the works.
I am assuming they continue to grow at the quality they have been, max production is minimal so it is not hard to project these guys getting there. Try their stuff if you want to know for yourself the quality they produce. So best of the worst case scenario from a quick look:
max production: 9,923,000 grams (assuming the lowest figure provided for max production)
price sold: $6.59 (saturation has been prevelant for over a year yet they increased their price by .05 from the previous quarter. Prices on market for comparable quality min 20% more)
GPM: 24% (they increased GPM 4% from the previous quarter. With the bulk costs being accounted for an increase in production will result in an increased GPM however I use the 24% they received from last quarter). I am also disregarding 510 cartridge and the hash being made as there is no finite figure to use when looking at production quantities and sold amounts.
So here we go:
9,923,000 grams low end max production * $6.59 ppg * 24% / total number of shares outstanding 558,182,257 (per Q1 ER) = 0.0281 EPS
Simple take on SugarBud looking at the worst case of the best case and that is maxing production, maintaining quality and price per gram (6.59), no improvements to gross profit marging (which will happen as production increases - the primary costs such as employees are fairly stagnant now so more product with similar amount of staff equals less cost to produce) divided by shares out per q1 release, not considering 2.0 products, they should be able to producce a minimum profit of 15.69million or almost .03 cents a share.
What is a small cannabis company producing a sustainable profit that is almost 65% of the share price worth? $.035? .045?
I am aniticipating that GPM of 24% to be more like 40%+ at max production but we will see....