RE:L.M.EI stopped trying to correlate Ni prices to exchange inventories years ago. As you state it's not metals moving around that drives Ni prices. To me, growth in the Stainless Steel market is a far more important determinant than SME/LME info for where Ni prices head. SS production and the NPI supply balance into that end-use are the key factors at play. SS production is looking quite strong. Indonesia NPI continues to ramp. NILSY always keeps a close eye on what Indonesia is doing.
https://www.worldstainless.org/news/stainless-steel-production-increases-by-24-7-to-14-5-million-tons-in-the-first-3-months-of-2021/
>>>Norilsk Nickel expects the nickel market will widen its surplus by 9pc in 2021, as Indonesian nickel pig iron (NPI) production outpaces greater demand. The nickel surplus will rise to 95,000 metric tonnes (t) in 2021 from 87,000t in 2020, the Russian nickel miner said at the annual Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (ISRI) conference yesterday. Indonesian producers will add 370,000t of NPI supply in 2021, coupled with other smaller increases, lifting total nickel output to 2.7mn t, while greater stainless steel and battery demand will lift consumption only to 2.65mn t. Norilsk estimated that expanding Indonesian NPI production will free up producers of class 1 nickel metal to target non-stainless steel industries for customers. Stainless steel accounts for about 70pc global nickel consumption, according to the Nickel Institute.
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2210113-nickel-surplus-to-grow-in-2021-on-indonesia-norilsk