Gold and data for next week
Price level to watch
The $1,800 an ounce level remains a strong resistance point. Until the precious metal can start closing above it, gold is unlikely to gain much traction, said Pavilonis.
"We need to get back above $1,800 to turn this ship around. If we can't do that, we can start getting back to $1,670, which is the path of least resistance. And if we break through that low, all bets are off. It will be a capitulation moment," he stated.
Melek is also watching a move above $1,800 an ounce as a sign of better things to come "Gold needs to break above $1,793, which could happen if the macro data is lousy next week. Then we could see a move towards $1,800-$1,808," he said.
Next week's data
Out of all the datasets scheduled to be released next week, the ones to watch will be the U.S. Q2 GDP numbers and the PCE price index, which comes along with personal income and spending indicators.
"The PCE is the big one to watch. It's the Fed's favorite inflation measure. If we have a stronger than expected inflation print, that would be bad for gold because it could force the Fed to tighten sooner rather than later. Also, I'm watching personal income and personal spending to see how the consumer is faring here," Melek said. "We are very likely to see somewhat weaker economic numbers, at least for the next little while, as the impact of delta variant slows things down a bit."
Here's the schedule for next week:
Monday
Existing home sales, manufacturing PMI
Tuesday
New home sales
Wednesday
Durable goods orders, Jackson Hole starts
Thursday
Jobless claims, GDP Q2
Friday
PCE price index, Fed Chair Powell scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole