New here, Old to ProbeHi All,
I was an investor in the old Probe, retained my spinoff postiton after the GC buyout, and ammassed a relatively decent sized position over the last few years. I know and have met Dave several times. I have no shortage in confidence in him and his team.
Are there things I would like to have seen done differently? Of course. There always are. But, by and large, my postion had performed well and still offers massive upside.
I too lose patience like many others on this board. But there is nothing we can do about it. When the payoff comes, it will come and those of us that have endured the lengthy wait and the volatilty will earn an incredible return....yes, even compared to the S&P over the same holding period.
SO, with that said, who is selling here if the story is so great? I have some guesses:
- Possibly Management. Yes, they exercised options and already own shares. But they are human and need cash and take some off the table from time to time. The low volume would indicate that it is not much of their holdings. However, they may be just cashing out for discretionary purposes.
- Possibly Acquirer(s). I know, sounds absurd. But the cost to keep the average price lower than it should be in anticipation of a takeover bid will pay off in spades if they c an get a cheap price for Probe as a result. If I was going to buy Probe, I'd short the hell out of it beforehand. This has been done by third parties forever in the financial markets in the hisory of M&A.
- Retail folks cashing out. Like I said above, this has maid a nice run. Folks are fatigued and don't want to wait. You can't blame them for taking $$ off the table.
Whatever happens, I'm convinced this company will be acquired soon. I won't get into the technical details of why I belive that. There are several experts on this board who have already cogently laid out those reasons. What I have seen is the price action. And that tells the story.
Good Luck Everyone!