RE:The Pathway to $ 9 !? Is there a new presentation? Is it still saying trial completion H2 2022 or did they silently move it to h3 2023. Nah that's not the style.. they'll wait until dec 30 to change. Wasn't it end of h1 2022 not long ago... I can't keep up with the dates any more. Why don't they just use a variable... like "X" and we can fill in the blank and change it ourselves as we go along.
mercedesman wrote: Using new Sept Presentation
facts and figures....
Anticipated Tigris Enrollment - re-iterated Q 4 2021 !
Note: this is associated with the next baxter milestone Payment (another cash infustion by the Multi-billion $ Distribution partner)
Targeteded Market penetration thru partnership with Baxter (35-45%) (per presentaiton)
Lets use 40% (the midpoint)
EBITDA (EAA & PMX based on $ 7500/column market price - per presentation)
197.50 USD (midpoint of 35% $ 173M and 45% $ 222M USD EBITDA's are per presentation))
fully diluted pro-forma # shares 275M (per presentation)
EBITDA multiple (say 10X - highly conservative for an FDA approvd medical device co., with limited competition in a given space, and high barriers to entry)
Estimated MC based on EBITDA multiple = $ 197M USD X 10 = $ 1,975M
Per share valuation estimate:
$ 7.18 USD (= $1,975M / 275M shares)
or approx.
$ 9 CAD (using todays FX rates). PMX & EAA (NA) only. note: EAA = worldwide. Zero valuation for Dialco.
Note...(1) no discount factor used, (2) if you thought PMX had a 3.6% chance of success in the "confirmatiory" Phase 3B Trial, you might value it at say $ 0.33 today (3.6% x $ 9). i.e. assumes a 96.4% likellihood of valuation of $ 0, and a 3.6% likelihood of $ 9.
Personally I prefer to use a 50-60% likelihood of success, given societal need for a new Sepsis solution, stated early results, non culturable bacteria subgroup, other RWE, CV-19 impact on Sepsis stats, nature of the Trial (Bayesian, Open Label, 2:1), Kellum's commitment to the co., etc.
Please critique my math at your leisure.
MM