RE:Buyout price GuessesMy guess is the $1.20 too low and the shareholders would not go for it. Would have to be closer to $2. $5 is way too high and they could just buy the shares on the open market. Even with a run on the shares I doubt it would get that high.
I honestly don't see a buyout coming. I should... but think it would happened already if it was in the works. Could have had the whole company six month ago foe less than 200 mil (buy the bonds for 100 mil, buy the stat oil shares for 18 mil, loaded up before the Stat oil deal for 10% of the company even cheaper.... rest of the shares could get for less than 100 mil) A bit shocking really considering they have had more than that in cash and about a billion dollars in tax credits... not counting the assets. Like getting the company for free. If they did not want it then....
A merger is much more likely. To be honest, merging and creating a new company moght not be a bad idea. Seems they are very unloved - more so than other mid-teir oil companies.
It was my hope that the delay in the reinance was and indication of a bigger deal, but from the recent presentation to ATB seems they are struggling to get the costs down and might have to use a good chuck of the cash and just refinance $200 - $300 Mill to make it happen. Was unnerving how many times words 'high yeild bonds'. Sounds like they will be lucky to keep it under 8 - 9 %
Hope there is a big surprise to the upside - and I am long with ATH my largest share position of investment because it is so undervalued. Might not get unlocked untill the cash is flowing and they are debt free and buying back their shares (that no one else seems to want). If oil hit $100 - could happen very quickly.