Valuation Question
Had a question on Ath Valuation. Based on latest presentation they project 400 MM annual ebidta before hedging at 70 wti. Estimate 125 MM to sustain production so fcf of 275 MM. With a current net debt of ~250 MM and a market cap of 460 MM so an EV of 710 MM they have a CF / EV of 1.8 and can pay off debt and buy back all shares in a little over 2.5 years and have a reserve life of forever. This compares to peers that to me appear to be closer to 4 or 5 years fcf to buy back all shares. Is the math correct as Nuttall charts seem to have it valued a little lower? Is it the high break even cost that is holding it back compared to peers? By Feb 2022 will only have ~200 million net debt that could be paid off in 2022 fcf so can't imagine refinance will be difficult and would hold them back.