RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:So SnidelyYou are right, we don't know. The reason I have thrown out that numbers is because I think we need a model for evaluating something the size of NFG. My model is that I think that on the overall property there are 4-5 "jewelry boxes" similar to Keats-Lotto and assign an expected value of each at $1.5-2.5B if they were to be acquired by a major. If those assumptions hold true, it gives you an overall valuation between $6-12.5B.
Now, as we continue to explore the property, if it looks like we have 10 jewelry boxes, or that they bigger than my rough estimate of 3-7M oz each with an AISC+Development cost of $500-600/oz ... then the numbers might go outside those values. If POG shoots up to $3,000 an ounces, then that number might shift.
As they say, all models are flawed, but some models are useful. This is a model that I think is useful to provide a reasonable set of parameters from which you can adjust the variables and adapt as necessary. As exploration continues, we can see how it works out. If someone is convinced tha tthere are 20 jewelry boxes on this site, then fine, plug in the numbers come up with your own target valuation. But this is my prediction and assumptions I am going off of. Fire away...
megacopper wrote: Great discussion guys. Yes we might be getting a little ahead of ourselves with valuation of NFG saying it's worth 10 billion. We just don't know enough yet about the extent of the high grade mineralization and there are extension low grade envelopes outside of the high grade so there could be substantial dilution once mining starts so what will be the eventual grade of gold to be mined. Nobody knows the answer to that question. So we just don't have enough information yet to know what route NFG management should go with this discovery. They probably don't know themselves until more drill results come back from the assay lab. Yes it's very rich and it certainly is a very large gold system but nobody knows what form of mining would be best or even the size of the operation. I'm beginning to think it's best just to keep doing what they are doing and keep drilling finding more gold. If someone comes along with a sweet offer than it can be considered at that time.