In Real Dollars ARC looks Good! Q2 Actual TOU Numbers Last quater in total TOU produced
35,524 boe of oil and condensate with a total production of about 410,339 boe.
So for every 1000 boe of Prodution TOU would produce,
86 boe of oil/condensate Combine ARC Forcast Now if we look at ARC resouces they will produce 87,000 boe a day with a total production of about 350,0000 boe.
So for every 1000 boe of Production ARX will produce
249 boe of oil/condensate Prices for Analysis using current Prices Gas AECO spot on Sept 28 is 3.40 condensate is 76.85 U.S. or about 97.50 canadian
Prices Spet 28 BOE Comparsion (ARC produces 3X oil and Condensate as TOU on a boe basis) So for every boe of production ARC would produce $24.27 worth of oil/condy and TOU would produce $8.35 of oil and condensate.
So every boe produce by ARC is worth $15.92 more than a boe in terms of oil and condensate then a boe produced by TOU this uses actual Q2 numbers.
For Example If you average price for gas is
3.40 AECO spot then a boe of gas is worth $20.40 + $8.35 condensate value = 28.75/boe.
If ARX produces 350,000 boe and each barrel has a value of $15.92 more and gas is selling at $20.40 a boe pluse $8.35 for oil/condy. This esentially means that for every boe ARC produces it is worth about 1.55 boe's of TOU production.
350,000 *1.55 = 543,808 boe of TOU equalivent gas production daily.
Back of the napkin caculation, 3.40 AECO is a good local number, and condensate is alberta is spot price. Higher cost are associated with liquids production.
In my humble honeypot opinion, outside of other balance sheet considerations, i believe ARC has a better production profile than TOU.
This analysis does not take into account hedging and Condensate is trading at a very good number but you get the idea here i hope..
IMHO