RE:Implied ValuationCountrygent wrote:
More interesting to me is an implied valuation by TUD management of the whole of TC based on the implied price paid of $11.5 million.
So If a stream of a 1% NSR has an approximate NPV of $11.5 million (assuming Goldstorm was covered) , does that imply 99% of Goldstorm would be valued at a NPV of $1.14 billion? That seems a little thin to me, backing it out by 20% divided by the fully liquidated TUO float.
cg
Speaking personally, I would never sell a 1.02% NSR in Goldstorm for stock unless I had a very good idea of what that stock would be worth in a sale of the Goldstorm assets. That number is not $2.27/share or $11.5 million. It doesn't make sense to me from either an NPV standpoint or a Goldstorm valuation perspective.
The numbers begin to make more sense when I think about the price paid for Tudor stock in the last rounds of PP's - $3.60 for the flow-through shares. At 200 million shares fully diluted for Tudor, that would value Treaty Creek at about $1.2 Billion - a derisked value for sure, but easily doable in stock for several large players who are likely in the mix. At that number, the TUO share would be $240 million or $4/share fully diluted. But TUO also still has its 0.98% NSR and at the values I'm talking about and the number of Tudor shares we saw in the PR (5 million Tudor shares at more like $3.60) that's another $18 million or $.30/share - so I'm at about $4.30 to TUO per share for the Treaty Creek stake, and of course it would spin out all of the other properties including the NSR in T/C if it does not sell that.
For me, this news clarifies the valuation picture to some degree. $3.60/share for Tudor is a 59% premium over last night's close, also well within normal ranges. Again, there a number of unknowns such as the Seabridge MTT drilling and the rest of this year's results very much on the table which could surprise to the upside from here. Only 16,381 meters have been reported this year. If 30,000 is what they will drill, less than 55% of the results are known. The relationship of KSM to Treaty Creek, the role of the government in converting huge resources into currency, jobs, tax revenues and battery copper, the list goes on forever.
My guess is that after the spinout is complete we will be close to a deal. My speculation is that enough information has been developed on Goldstorm to move some players into action mode, and this announcement is possibly a hint that things are picking up steam.
Do your own DD. GLTA. Doug