RE:RE:RE:Wouldn’t they already know results from primary target now?Hi OIL_RUN,
Answering things in chronological order, I scanned quickly the other points but strating from the initial post (quit e a few posts in 14 hours of absence on my side).
They will certainly set a string before the Santonian, very certainly. It is not advisable, for many reasons that are of no interest to the larger community here, to drill over 2,000m involving 3 different target layers (i.e. expected to be with inflow potential and probably with different pressure regimes) with the same diameter; especially on a larger diameter i.e. 12-1/4".
They will normally set the production string (my bet is 9-7/8" 62.8 ppf 110ksi, maybe 125ksi) somewhere safe and sound before the Santonian, say at 6,000m for discussion's sake. It may be a liner (some B58 architecture is like that, they can take the well full of gas on the 13-5/8") or a full casing. And then they will drill into the targets in the Santonian.
Regarding contingency strings; the sizes they have left right now are an 11-3/4" drilling liner before the "proper" 9-7/8" production string and a 7" (or 7-5/8", more likely) string for below the production i.e. if they drill the say 1,300-1,400m through the Campanian on 12-1/4" without hole problems etc that require the use of the 11-3/4", they will not have used that particular size (it's justa contingency, as the name implies it) and they will just drill their 8-1/2" through the Santonian, keeping the last contingency string of 7" / 7-5/8". Pretty standard stuff all of that.
Regarding the timing, if the intermediate casing was run (a touch higher than we had initially expected based on the publicly available Oct2020 pdf files) on 10/14, then for them to cement, wait on cement, potentially test the BOP before the next section (every 21 days BOP test mandatory, they would have been by day 17 roughly sicne the last test based on the expected durations of the riserless phases, logically you will want to test the BOP before starting your section), drillout shoe track and FIT...it already means 5-6 days i.e. in my judgment, based on this limited amount of data, I would say that they haven't yet drilled down to the 5,000 and something meter where we expect to see that Campanian target.
Based on all of that, IF the intermediate casing run date is the 14/10, to the best of my professional judgment I cannot see any operational/drilling meaning to yesterday's feeding frenzy. It must then have been fear, greed, manipulation, whatever, but it is unlikely, quite unlikely to have been geology.
GLTA,