Orvana Minerals Corp T.ORV

RE:Bonanza Exploration Results worth $15.45 USD/share

[ganndolph1]

ganndolph1 wrote:

all, 

 

Orvana's current mine life based on the NI 43-101 report dated November 30, 2020 calls for production through FY 2025.  However, with the release of the latest drilling data through the end of fiscal Q3 2021, that number has conservatively been extended to 2032 with the addition of 4 million metric tons of ore grading 7.76 g/t gold, 12.6 g/t silver, and 0.59 percent copper for an added 1,008,792 ounces of gold, 1,644,000 ounces of silver, and 52.15 million pounds of copper.

 

I get this result by multiplying the strike length of each deposit times the cross section width times the average thickness of all economic drilling intercepts based on a gold equivalent cut off grade of 2.52 g/t Au Eq.  This estimate of is a conservative number for two reasons. 

First, I used a specific gravity of2.25 assuming all ore is oxide ore. 
 

Second, I assume that each mineralized intercept counts as an independent measure of cross section thickness, and some drill holes have multiple economic intercepts which should be added together as these cross sections are adjacent in some instances and represent multiple ore veins in other cases. 

 

On April 19, 2021, I posted my estimate of the new exploration results in post 33020295.  So, by adding the BX and adding HAE High Grade and HAE updated to reflect the published cross sections per the July 14, 2021 exploration results, my conclusion is that

Orvana's recent bonanza drilling results at Orovalle in Spain are worth 15.45 USD in value per share of stock at current metal prices.

 

With Orvana Minerals trading at 0.40 Canadian dollars per share, the severity of this stock's undervaluation relative to fair market valuation should be clear to anyone contemplating a purchase of this highly undervalued equity!

 

 

AREA	TONNES	AU	AG	CU	Gold	Silver	Copper
	t	g/t	g/t	%	ounces	ounces	lb
HAE	1,759,939	4.648	5.764	0.195	263,014	326,211	7,562,419
HAE High Grade	233,269	27.891	30.358	1.707	209,199	227,702	8,773,798
BX	948,629	10.926	14.411	0.594	333,270	439,578	12,410,615
SB	646752.7	4.176	26.535	1.120	86,846	551,820	15,958,332
S107	175675.5	7.740	15.869	1.778	43,722	89,640	6,883,017
A208	275913.4	8.199	1.068	0.093	72,741	9,475	566,317
Total	4,040,179	7.765	12.658	0.586	1,008,792	1,644,426	52,154,497
	710000			Metal Price	1820	26	4.42
	5.690393				$1,836,001,678	$42,755,072	$230,522,876
			Total metal value		$2,109,279,625
			Orvana Float		136,500,000
			In situ  value/share		$15.45

 

So the following table updates the previous spreadsheet and adds the new BX high grade gold and high grade copper areas.

AREA	TONNES	AU	AG	CU	Gold	Silver	Copper
	t	g/t	g/t	%	ounces	ounces	lb
HAE	1,759,939	4.648	5.764	0.195	263,014	326,211	7,562,419
HAE High Grade	233,269	27.891	30.358	1.707	209,199	227,702	8,773,798
OLD BX	948,629	10.926	14.411	0.594	333,270	439,578	12,410,615
BX AU	3,041,517	11.72802		0.047379	1,146,976		3,176,049
BX CU	4,129,449	0.047379		0.766982	6,291		69,805,364
SB	646752.7	4.176	26.535	1.12	86,846	551,820	15,958,332
S107	175675.5	7.74	15.869	1.778	43,722	89,640	6,883,017
A208	275913.4	8.199	1.068	0.093	72,741	9,475	566,317
Total	4,040,179	7.765	12.658	0.586	1,008,792	1,644,426	52,154,497
	710000			Metal Price	1820	26	4.42
	5.690393				$1,836,001,678	$42,755,072	$230,522,876
TOTAL…	10,262,516				1,828,789		112,725,295
		JULY2021	Total metal value		$2,109,279,625
			Orvana Float		136,500,000
			In situ  value/share		$15.45
					3,328,396,710	$42,755,072	498,245,804
		OCT 2021	Total metal value		3,869,397,586
			Orvana Float		136,500,000
			In situ  value/share		$28.35

 
 
The October 19 2021 Exploration results from the Orovalle BX East Breccia features **BX  results for copper greater than 0.6 percent independent of whether the gold and silver grades are economic.  Historically, the Au Eq cutoff grade was 2.52 g/t with the equation used was AuEq equals Au + .009*Ag + 1.089*Cu.  However, at the East Breccia cross section, the drilled cores feature a high grade layer 3 to 12 meters wide grading from 3 to 28.22 g/t adjacent to a wide band of relatively high grade copper over 0.6 percent with intercepted widths 5 to 16.5 meters.  The vertical distance from hole 21BX1045 to 21BX1046 is approximately 120  meters.

Assuming continuity over 500 meters the BX high grade gold zone contains an estimated 3.04 million metric tons grading 11.72 g/t or  1.15 million ounces of gold and 3.18 million pounds of copper as a by product within the high grade gold zones, while the adjacent high grade copper zone contains 4.13 million metric tons of ore averaging 0.76 percent copper and containing an estimated 69.8 million pounds of copper and approximately 6300 ounces of gold as a by product within the high grade copper zone. 
The new BX cross section increases my estimate of the BX gold resource from 333,270 ounces to  1.155 million ounces.

The new BX data also increases the in situ value of Orvana stock from $15.45 USD per share to $28.35 USD per share using the same metals  price assumptions that I used in July.

The year end resource update should be quite interesting perhaps signaling a sea change in how Orvana
Looks at Orovalle not just a gold mine with  copper and silver by product  but  a gold mine  with separate high grade copper and gold areas.

The other important item to note is to compare the size of the E2 area in the October news release compared with the much smaller area depicted in the July 2021 exploration update.  Interestingly, no copper or gold assays have been released for the E2 area in the October news release.  More high grade gold and copper results on the way.

ganndolph